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Dr. Heintges is, of course, correct in stating that the development of railway communication and the opening of other treaty ports, both on the coast and in the interior of Manchuria, have deprived Newchwang of the monopoly she once held of the trade of these three provinces. There can be no disputing either his contention that a further blow has been dealt to the prosperity of the port by the unfortunate condition of the Liao River. With his opinion, however, that the ruin of the port is imminent, and that it is therefore futile to worry ourselves with such questions as the improvement of the river, which will entail an expenditure of millions of taels without any hope of return, or the establishment of an international settlement at this port, the advantages of which can never be proportionate to the expense and responsibilities which it will entail, I am entirely in disagreement.
It is evidently Dr. Heintges's belief that practically the entire trade of Newchwang will eventually be attracted to Dalny, and, as his reasons for thinking so, he points out that this latter port has a better situation and better harbour facilities than Newchwang, that it is the terminus of the South Manchurian Railway, and finally that it is ice-free and offers the best possible facilities for vessels up to 5,000 tons. The very fact that the export of beans, once the monopoly of Newchwang, is being attracted more and more to Dalny is, in his opinion, the surest evidence of the fate which is awaiting this port.
That Dalny as a port bas certain advantages over Newchwang it is impossible to deny. The greatest of these is that her harbour is ice-free throughout the year, while that of Newchwang is closed during the winter months. It can also easily accommodato vessels up to 5,000 tons, whereas vessels drawing over 18 feet are unable as a rule to cross the bar at the mouth of this river. But I imagine that very few people will agree with Dr. Heintges when he says that Dalny is in a better situation than Newchwang or that her harbour can compare with that of Newchwang for steamers of the ordinary type plying on the China Coast, that is, of 2,000 tons and under. On the contrary, the situation of Newchwang as an outlet and distributing base for the trade of Manchuria is infinitely better than that of Dalny, and there are no two opinions among seafaring men as to the superiority of her harbour for this type of vessel. It is safer than that of Dalny, the loading and discharging facilities are equally good, and labour is far cheaper and more plentiful. The fact, again, that Dalny is the terminus of the South Manchurian Railway can scarcely be regarded as an advantage in her favour over Aewchwang, seeing that this port is 135 miles nearer It is true by the same line to the chief markets and producing centres of Manchuria. that Newchwang is at the present time so ungenerously treated in the matter of freights and railway facilities that her closer proximity to these markets is of no advantage to her, yet it can scarcely be expected that the interests of the railway will always be sacrificed to those of the port of Dalny. The same rates are now charged, and better facilities offered, for beans travelling from Kuan Cheng Tzu to Dalny as for beans going from the same place to Newchwang, in spite of the fact that the distance to Dalny is, as I have mentioned, 135 miles greater, and that in the large majority of cases the cars conveying them to Dalny have, for lack of any return cargo, to be brought back empty, making an actual difference in extra haulage as compared with the Newchwang route of 270 miles, or as much The price of again as the entire distance from Kuan Cheng Tzu to this port. beans is sufficiently high at present to stand the heavy freights which the railway is consequently obliged to charge to make the line profitable, but it is not all goods that can afford to do so, as the Japanese have found out in the case of coal from the Fushun mines, which could not be conveyed to Dalny at a cost which would allow As a result they have a profit both to the railway and on the sale of the coal. been obliged to make Newchwang the depôt for this coal.
The fact that Dalny is an ice-free port will, of course, always give her a considerable share of the trade of Manchuria, especially so if the export of beans to Europe continues to develop; but that this will mean the ruin of Newchwang, even under the most unfavourable circumstances, appears to me a most unlikely contingency. The expansion of which the trade of these three provinces is showing its capability is extraordinary, and if proof he needed of the ability of Newchwang to hold her own with Dalny, we bave only to look at the customs returns for last year when, in spite of the commercial depression due to financial stringency which prevailed here, the wretched state of the river, and the keen competition of Dainy, the value of her exports increased to a figure (3,319,5761) previously unknown in the history of the port. The truth is that there is ample trade in Manchuria for both ports, and, if Nowchwang has no longer a monopoly of the handling of it, the natural advantages
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of her position are sufficient to ensure that she will always retain a considerable proportion of it. It must be remembered, too, that Newchwang is not only a port of outlet and inlet, but also a manufacturing centre for beancake of considerable importance, the yearly output of her mills exceeding 200,000 tons. She is not likely, therefore, to lose, at any rate for some years to come, her position as the chief market for this article, especially as the mills which have been started at Dalny have proved anything but a success.
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Dr. Heintges is again far too pessimistic on the subject of the Liao River. know from Mr. Hughes, the consulting engineer in the employ of the Manchurian Government, that it is quite practicable to build a weir across the Shuang Tai Tzu inlet which will not have the injurious effect on the population along its shores which Dr. Heintges anticipates, and there is no doubt, in my opinion, that it will be built, if not this year, at any rate next spring. He has considerably better grounds for his statement that the cost of putting the Liao into a thoroughly navigable condition will be prohibitive, but, on the other hand, no such scheme is contemplated. During dry seasons there have always been obstacles to navigation in the Liao River, and its present condition, except just below the Shuang Tai Tzu inlet, is not really very much worse than it was ten years ago, when the traffic on it was at its busiest. The closing of this inlet and the removal by dredging of some of the chief obstructions will, in all probability, put the river into as good condition as at any period since the opening of Newchwang to trade. As to the danger of the river breaking through at Duck Island, steps will have to be taken in the near future to guard against it, no matter what the cost may amount to.
Dr. Heintges also appears to anticipate the disappearance shortly, to the further detriment of Newchwang, of the cart traffic to this port, which will be driven out of existence by the railways. Where it is a question of long distances, traders will no doubt avail themselves less and less of this method of transport, but it is never- theless a fact that last winter the cart traffic to Newchwang surpassed all records, over 40,000 of these vehicles visiting the port. During the winter season it is actually cheaper to send certain classes of goods, of which sugar is the most important, by cart even to such distant places as Kirin and Kwang Cheng Tzu, than it is by rail. The large majority, however, of the carts come from places in the Fengtien province, and return of course to the same places.
Dr. Heintges concludes his remarks on the subject with a warning against the statistics published by the Imperial Maritime Customs which, if they show no decrease in the trade of Newchwang, must not be taken to mean that the place has an equal, much less a greater, share of the trade of Manchuria than it had in the past. This of course is obvious, since the port no longer possesses a monopoly of this trade, but, as long as the returns show an increase, it is scarcely true to say that the port is declining. So far this year the trade of Newchwaug has been in an exceptionally healthy condition, and appears likely to surpass in volume all previous records.
The confidence I feel in the future of Newchwang is, I believe, shared by the whole of the foreign community at this port, including Dr. Heintges' own nationals. No foreign firm has migrated from here to Dalny, nor, as far as I am aware, have any of them any intention to do so. On the other hand, the most astute business men amongst them are still investing largely in land, which is the best proof they can give of their faith in its prospects. That the Japanese themselves do not believe in the decline of Newchwang, however eagerly they may desire it, is evident from the enormous new bank buildings that they are putting up, and from the fact that they are extending the terminus of their railway at considerable cost to a point nearer to the native town. As to the Chinese, their conservative instincts, as Dr. Heintges nontions, did not prevent them from going to Dalny when that port was first opened, but the fact that almost all who did so have since returned to Newchwang, shows that they too are not without hope that this port will hold its own against its formidable rival.
There can, however be no two opinions on the necessity in the interests of the trade of Newchwang of some attention being given at the earliest possible date to the improvement of the Liao. An expenditure of, say, 500,000 dollars, to be raised, if no other way can be found, by a tax on the trade of the port, is all that is needed. The beans consumed in the beancake mills at this port find their way here almost entirely by boat, being mostly grown in the Liao River valley. Should the river cease to be navigable, Dr. Heintges' gloom predictions may to some extent be verified. It is also of considerable importance to the future of Newchwang that her trade should be free from any form of fiscal oppression which the trade of her rivals is able to escape. you are aware, the very heavy li-kin charges to which cargo conveyed by the Chinese
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