438
2
China where the taxation is irregular and for the most part evaded and where public or official returns are practically unknown-the estimate is merely patchwork, Attempts have also been made to arrive at the number of smokers and their percentages of the population and of adult males; but based as they are on figures admittedly unreliable the result is necessarily of inconsiderable value.
Before, however, coming to production and consumption I should like to draw the attention of the Commission to pp. 5 and 6 of the Chinese Memorandum, where a Table is given of the distribution of foreign opium, from which it is deduced that the only provinces showing an increase in the consumption of foreign opiunt in 1908, as compared with 1906, are Kiangsi and Anhui. This, I think, is somewhat misleading, for as soon as opium has paid duty and li-kin at any port in China, and the balls have been labelled and certificated by the Customs, they may be carried by Chinese into any province in the Empire without again coming under the cognizance of the Imperial Maritime Customs, and to say, for example, that the net import of 16,996 piculs of foreign opium into the ports of Shanghae, Chinkiang, and Nanking was all consumed in the Province of Kiangsu is altogether misleading. Certificated opium finds its way from one province to another by inland channels uncontrolled by the Imperial Maritime Customs.
Another point to which I would call attention is the Opium Revenue Table on p. 10 of the Memorandum. What is the total revenue derived from native opium ? The duty and l-kin (or rather a tax collected in lieu of transit dues) given in the Table, represent merely the share of the taxation on native opium which falls to the Imperial Maritime Customs. The latter, in addition, collected and handed over to the native collectorates in 1906, Haikuan taels 369,997 as Kaochuan, and K'up'ing tacls 611,861 as Tung-shui; and in 1907, K'up'ing taels 827,232 as Tung-shui.
These are paltry sums compared with the actual sums collected, for we know that 51.827 piculs of native opium arrived at Ichang from Western China in 1908, and we know that this opium was liable, in addition to other provincial taxation, before or on arrival at Ichang, to a consolidated provincial duty of 115 K'uping taels a picul or a total of 5,960,105 K'uping taels, a sum in excess of the total revenue derived from foreign opium during the year. It may here be noted that the native opium which found its way down river from Western China to Telang by this one route exceeded the net import of all foreign opium into China in 1908 by 3,430 piculs. This tax of 115 Kuping taels is not levied on opium produced and consumed in the provinces of Szechmeu, Yunnan, and Kueichow, or in Manchuria where lighter taxation prevails, and I ask the Chinese delegation if they are able to furnish the Commission with the total amount of the taxation of native opium in any recent
year.
I come now to the question of opium production in China, a subject which has occupied many minds for many years. At p. 15 of the Memorandum, presented by the Chinese delegation, some estimates for recent years are given-by Mr. Morse for 1905, Mr. Leech for 1907, the Board of Revenue for 1906, Customs Returns for 1906, aud Customs Returns for 1908. 1 climinate from these Mr. Leech's estimate, which
with two exceptions is the same as Mr. Morse's, whereon it was based, and the estimate of the Board of Revenue, which is admitted to be altogether unsatisfactory and untrustworthy and has been challenged in an outspoken memorial by the Tartar General stationed at Ning-hsia in the Province of Kansu, and I ask the Chinese delegation when the Customs estimate for 1908 was compiled. Was it compiled in 1907 or at the end of 1908 along with the estimate for that year? There is, I think, internal evidence to show that the latter was the case and that both estimates were com- piled at and one the same time. For the moment, one instance will suffice. At
p. 15 the Province of Anhui is dealt with. The Commissioner of Customs at Wuhu, the only port open to foreign trade in that province, estimates the annual production of Anhui to be not less than 3,000 piculs at the present time, and he states that there has been a reduction in the area under poppy cultivation in some districts of from 50 to 80 per cent. The compilers of the Memorandum then say that that estimate is consequently doubled for 1906. Such reasoning, to my mind, is perfectly illogical, for we have been informed that the area or acreage under poppy is an unknown quantity and a conclusion based on the alleged reduction of an unknown area is of very little value. In other cases the estimate of production in 1908 is deduced by cutting down the estimated production of 1906 by certain percentages. For example, it is stated that the production of Yunnan has been reduced since 1906 by over 50 per cent., and that, as Kucichow is under the same Viceroyalty, it is reduced by one-third. Again, although there is no connection between tho
3
Yunnan and the Provinces of Szechuen, Shansi, and Kansu, it is argued that, because Yünnan production has been curtailed by one-half, the output of the other three provinces has each been reduced by one-third. It is really unnecessary to take up the time of this Commission with multiplying such cases, but it is well to point out that from deductions such as these the conclusion is drawn that there has been a curtailment of production in China to the extent of 37 per cent. in 1908 as compared with 1906. It may be so and I sincerely hope it is, but I am afraid that the figures on which such a conclusion is based would not satisfy any Western Statistical Society.
In the leaflet of telegraphic reports from the various provincos, which forms a supplement to the Memorandum, it is stated that the cultivation of the poppy has been entirely suppressed in Feng-tien, the southern province of Manchuria. Since when? Opium in Manchuria is a summer crop, and it was cultivated in several places, especially near the Mongolian border, in 1908, so that it will be time enough to speak of the poppy having been suppressed in Feng-tien when the time for sowing the crop comes round in 1909. Again, we are told in the leaflet that the cultivation of the poppy has been reduced by 60 per cent. in the Province of Shan-tung, and that it will be totally suppressed by the end of 1909. If you will turn to page 97 you will find a telegraphic report by the Governor of Shan-tung to his Excellency Tuan Fang, in which it is stated that the production of opium in Shan-tung in 1908 was (1) for home consumption 95,079 catties, and (2) for export 52,557 catties--a total of 148,236 catties or 1,482 piculs, whereas if you will refer to the table of production on page 15 you will find that the Customs estimate of the production of the province for 1908 was 12,000 piculs, a somewhat extraordinary discrepancy, and it may be assumed that the measures necessary to abolish productions of 1,482 and 12,000 piculs would differ very materially. I do not wish to question the bond fides of the Governor of Shan-tung. He merely reports what was communicated to him by the Native It is Opium Consolidated Tax Bureau, and he gives the statistics supplied by it. simply an instance illustrating the difficulties with which the high provincial authorities in China have to contend, and the laxity that prevails in accepting statements as facts. I might quote several other provinces through which I travelled in 1908, but I think I have said enough to show that the figures for production furnished by the Memorandum are based on by no means accurate or reliable data. The burden of most of these recent telegraphic reports is that suppression will be effected in 1909 ; but Chekiang and Shensi state that they still require three years, and the Viceroy of Szechuen, who has to deal with the greatest opium producing province in the Empire, reports that cultivation has ceased within over forty districts of the province, and that the balance--some eighty more-will suppress cultivation within the prescribed limit.
So much for production. I come now to the question of consumption. Opium smokers have not yet been registered throughout the Empire, and their number is unknown; but an attempt has been made by the Chinese delegation to arrive at a census of consumers by taking an estimated production of native opium, adding the foreign import, dividing smokers into two classes-light and heavy--and apportioning half of the estimated total amount of the drug between the two classes, each light This smoker being given a daily allowance of 1 mace, and a heavier smoker 4 mace.
is a novel division of classes; but I much prefer the result of careful inquiries made in many provinces of China, which is that the average daily consumption of a smoker is 2 mace of prepared opium, and taking what appears to me to be the excessive estimate of 613,917 piculs of raw opium consumed in 1906, and allowing each smoker his 2 mace, the number of smokers becomes not 13,455,699, but 10,627,578, or about 265 of an uncounted population assumed to number 400,000,000. I no not, admit, however, that the production of native opium in China in 1906 was 584,800 piculs as stated: the estimate is based on altogether insufficient data, and it might have been possible for the Chinese delegates, knowing, as the Chinese Government should do, the provincial and Imperial revenue derived from native opium and the rate of taxation, to arrive at some reliable approximation to the actual production, especially in view of the fact that Mr. Tong stated, when presenting the Memorandum that about 25 per cent, of the total production in China escaped taxation. As matters stand, the Customs estimates for 1906 and 1908 are so dependent one upon another that an under or over estimate in one year entirely vitiates the other. The per- centages of smokers to the whole, and to the adult population, are undoubtedly important factors in this investigation, and there seems no good reason for deviating from the usual estimate of five persons forming a family. This would give some
[2236 r-3]
B 2