[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]
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AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL,
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C.O. 8782
[February 20.]
IRECR
Rec 12 MAR 09
SECTION 1.
No. 1.
Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received February 20.)
(No. 14. Sir,
Confidential.)
Peking, January 6, 1909. THE Decree which was issued on the afternoon of the 2nd instant and of which a copy is inclosed, came as a complete surprise to both Chinese and foreigners and has been received generally with a feeling of alarm as indicating the reactionary tendencies of the Manchu party and the self-willed or vindictive character of the Prince Regent.
Yuan Shih-kai, whom the Decree relegates to private life with scant ceremony, has stood for the last ten years in the eyes of the whole Empire us the man whose name was identified with order, progress, and stable government. As Governor of Shantung during the Boxer period, he saved the province from anarchy and set an example which, had it been followed by the weak Manchu Government in Peking, would have saved China from the disasters of 1900. Promoted to be Viceroy at Tien-tsin, he ruled the northern province for some four years and his administration was everywhere regarded as a model on which the reform of the country should be based. His own attainments were not great, common sense and a genuine desire to see his country advance were probably his distinguishing qualities and his moral character, judged by a western standard, left much to be desired. But he had a good knowledge of men and inspired the fullest confidence in his subordinates. He surrounded himself with a band of progressive men, mostly Cantonese who had worked with him in Corea, and he himself supplied the driving power. The result was the creation of an army which received, perhaps in undue measure, the eulogy of foreign military experts, the abolition of the old examination system and the establishment of schools on modern lines throughout the province, the crusade against opium which, from being a provincial, soon became a national, policy, and many other measures which need not be enumerated in detail.
In September 1907 Yuan was transferred to Peking as President of the Wai-wu Pu and member of the Grand Council. The reasons for the step have never been clearly known. That it was not his own wish is certain. He showed the utmost reluctance to obey the Imperial summons and found his surroundings uncongenial from the outset. For some time before he left Tien-tsin he had been gradually losing control of the army, which was reverting to incompetent Manchu hands, and one motive for the transfer was probably to sever him entirely from all connection with it and render him powerless when a change of régime came.
When in Peking his influence made itself felt for good all over the Empire but not so much as his antecedents would have justified one in expecting. He had not the arts of a courtier, had a cordial dislike for all the ceremonies of the Palace, and in practical affairs found little scope for any initiative amongst a number of Princes and Manchu dignitaries for whom reform and progress meant loss of privileges and position. He himself has frequently told me that he despaired of doing any good here and only wished he were back in Tien-tsin to resume his provincial administration.
In the Wai-wu Pu, howover, his presence was a decided advantage. More than any Chinese official I have known he appreciated the importance, while upholding the interests of his own country, of retaining the confidence of foreign Powers, and he knew that the fulfilment of solemn engagements was the best means of attaining that object. In China the provinces take their cue largely from the Central Government and the absence of any serious trouble in the country during the past year or more is probably attributable to the knowledge that there was a firm hand guiding affairs in Poking.
It was always felt that the death of the Empress Dowager would seriously affect Yuan Shih-kai's position, and that his tenure of power would be precarious under the Emperor whom he had failed to support in the Palace struggle of 1899. The simul- taneous deaths of both Monarchs and the accession to power of the Emperor's brother
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