[B]
[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]
514
C.O.
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
[6865]
No. 1.
7798
[February 20
THECY SECTION 2. REC 4 MAR 09
Sir C. MacDonald to Sir Edward Grey,-(Received February 20.)
(No. 11. Confidential.) Sir,
Tokió, January 23, 1909. ON the 3rd instant the news reached Tokio that the Chinese statesman, Yuan-shi- kai, had been relieved from his duties in Peking and ordered into retirement to his native province.
The news created very great excitement in Tokio, and fears were expressed that this drastic and entirely unexpected action on the part of the Prince Regent was an indication of a departure from the policy of reform which had given such satisfaction to Japan, and was likely to have very far-reaching consequences; fears were expressed that Yuan's dismissal would be very shortly followed by that of his numerous protégés and nominees, who filled various posts of the highest importance, both in Peking and in the provinces, and, indeed, would be the commencement of a coup d'État somewhat similar to the one which took place in 1898.
Yuan-shi-kai himself seemed to be somewhat of the same opinion, for the newspapers reported that his Excellency had fled to Tien-tsin and taken refuge in the British Consulate; the first part of this information was subsequently confirmed. The He asked day after the publication of the news I met Count Komura at the Palace. me whether I bad any information from the British Representative in Peking regarding Yuan's dismissal, and then proceeded to inform me that he had received no details, but that the news was decidedly of a serious nature; he, personally, had thought at the time of the death of the Emperor, and the accession to power of the Prince Regent, that the various parties in the Central Government in Peking would some day try conclusions, but he thought that it would be some time before that struggle came to pass. He was, therefore, surprised and somewhat alarmed at the suddenness with which events seemed to be moving.
Two or three days later I again saw his Excellency, when he informed me that more reassuring news had arrived from Mr. 1juin, the Japanese Representative in Peking, and that the Japanese Government did not now anticipate any immediate trouble. Both Chan-chi-tung and Na-tung had assured Mr. Ijuin that Yuan-shi-kai's personal safety was assured, and that there would be no dismissal of Yuan's nominees in the Government, at any rate to any extent; also that no change in the policy of reform to which the Chinese Government stood committed would take place; under the circumstances the Japanese Government were prepared to accept Yuan's dismissal as a personal question amongst the various high officials at the Court of Peking, and thought that it was due to a great extent to the part his Excellency took in the coup d'État
of 1898.
On my asking whether it was correct, as reported in the newspapers, that some concerted action was contemplated in Peking on the part of the Representatives of the various Powers with regard to representations to be made respecting Yuan's dismissal, his Excellency said he understood that some such concerted action was contemplated, and he had sent instructions to the Japanese Representative to join his colleagues in any representations they might make. He added that, from his personal experience of diplomatic affairs in Peking, which was pretty extensive, he did not think concerted action would take place, because the Powers would never be able to agree on the wording and manner of presenting their representations.
As the days went by, and further news came from Peking to the effect that Yuan's dismissal had passed off quietly, and had not been followed by any dismissals of members of his party, a calmer feeling prevailed, and in Government circles and in the press it was considered that the dismissal was in reality a personal matter, and would not be followed by any change in the policy of reform or in China's relations with foreign Powers. In many of the leading newspapers it was pointed out that the rights recovery policy was one which had been inaugurated and upheld by Yuan-shi- kai and his lieutenant, Tong-shau-yi, and that this policy had been largely instrumental
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