334
The problem in China.
The two
essential problems.
(a.) Restric. tion of
1
I have I trust shewn that, so far from having done nothing to assist China, Hongkong is perhaps the only place (until the recent action of India) which has consistently and effectively afforded assistance.
The sincerity and honesty of purpose of the Central Government and of many of the Viceroys of the eighteen great provinces of China is admitted, but the difficulties,-Financial, Industrial, and Executive-which confront the Provincial Administrations are very great. In dealing therefore with a matter which affects great industrial interests in British India, and the Native States, and the revenues and trade of the Eastern Colonies, it is imperative in justice to those whose industry and trade are affected to proceed gradually and tentatively, and not too far in advance of the steps taken by China, so that the interests of our own nationals may not be sacrificed without corresponding visible and tangible results in China, and we may assure ourselves alike of the permanency of the movement, and of the ability of the Central Government to carry it through in an Empire with so little cohesion as China.
The two really essential problems, which in my view China has to solve if she intends to carry out her declared intention are :---
(a.) The restriction and ultimate abolition of the cultivation of the
Poppy in China.‡
(6.) The provision of a revenue to replace that now raised on opium. When these two problems are in a fair way of solution it may justly be said that China has set a Standard which is worthy of emulation, and has proved herself to be in earnest.
As regards restriction of cultivation. The fact must not be lost sight of that production, of the total quantity of opium consumed in China---estimated at 22,588 tons in 1906*-ths is grown in China itself § chiefly in the Province of Szechuan (66% of the 10tal) which is one of the most densely populated of the provinces of China (45 millions) into which no foreign opium is imported, and in which as Mr. Clementi** has shewn, the percentage of smokers is more than double that in the rest of the Empire. Out of her enormous production China in fact (as I have shewn) exports opium to Indo-China ¶ and I believe to Siam, where the consumption shews no decrease † though the King in a manifesto on his birthday declared his desire to restrict it. This is irrespective of the amount illicitly exported which is probably considerable. In Szechuan and Yunnan the cultiva- tion of opium is a great agricultural industry, and its arbitrary abolition would inflict a great injury on the population. In this connection it is of interest to note that Mr. Clementi shews in his translation of the Article on the Poppy from the Chinese Encyclopædia that the plant was known and cultivated in China for medicinal purposes as early as the beginning of the 9th Century, and that the use of opium was probably introduced by the Arabs as early as the middle of the 15th Century.
How gauge
Restriction in China.
Relative to the restriction of cultivation the point naturally arises How is India at the end of the trial period of three years to ascertain whether China has fulfilled her part of the contract and has made a corresponding reduction in the internal produc- tion? Since there is no proper survey, and no accurate record of the area under poppy cultivation, and China refuses the assistance of foreign surveyors, it is clear that existing statistics are very nebulous and no exact demonstration of decrease can be expected. The only rough and ready method therefore of gauging whether China has proportionately decreased cultivation during the three trial years, is to judge by the current price of Native Opium in China. If it rises considerably as it must do with a decrease of cultivation, it will be fair to assume that the alleged reduction has really taken place,--allowance being made at the same time for a fall in prices due to decrease of smokers, and decrease of illicit export (which with a rise in price of Native Opium becomes less profitable). I lay stress on the
The Memorial of the Tartar-General of Ninghsia (Official Gazette 17.12.08) frankly admits that Chinese statements regarding the decrease of the habit are untrue. Troops and officials can be made to deaist, but the only remedy he says for the populace is to cease cultivation.
China No. 1 (1908) p. 33.
Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1908).
Sir A. Hosie'a estimate--by far the lowest-Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1908).
** Calculation dated 12.6.08.
¶ 635,067 lbs. ía 1906. [Mr. Leech's report,—Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1903).] 200,437 Iba,
in 1907. [Mr. Hardouin's report to Governor-General, Indo-China.]
† F. O. Annual Series 3909/07, p. 6.
5
necessity of this rise in the price of opium in China for until its price is on a parity with that obtaining in the Straits and Hongkong, those Colonies are justified in claiming that the restrictive methods of China are less effective than their own, and in resenting the consequential sinuggling from China to British territory.
for the
Poppy.
It would seem that the best way of reducing the area of cultivation is a Poppy Substitutes Tax on all lands devoted to the growth of the poppy, which could be gradually increased until the cultivation became unprofitable. Such a tax already exists in Shansi where poppy land is rated at about three times as high as any other It also exists in Manchuria. The imposition of such a tox would enable the Government to cheapen transport for crops of less value, and to grant some compensation to poppy growers who take up other crops in lieu of the poppy.
crop.
Sir A. Hosie estimates that a crop of wheat per aere is worth £4.5.6 as against £5.16.8 for poppy (viz., 26.71% loss)* but there are crops possibly of more value than wheat suitable for poppy land such as tobacco, cocoa, or rubber. Mr. Fox lately Consul in the poppy-growing province of Szechuan says that the tobacco is of high quality, and suggests as substitutes ramie, tea, silk and vegetable oils. It is worthy of note that as food stuff's replace the poppy, the price of food decreases, and with it the perennial scourge of famine from floods etc. and the necessity of the embargo on the export of rice. It would be of benefit to China if an expert agriculturist were to advise as to the most paying substitutes for the poppy.
The world Supply of
Opium.
The whole subject of opium production is a difficult one. requires a large quantity for medicinal purposes, and in order that the count- Medicina! ries which produce, or are capable of producing, the drug may guard against its export and use for illicit purposes, it would appear to be necessary that the output should be made a Government monopoly and the Government of the country of consignment notified of all shipments so that it may adopt measures for controlling the sale,-otherwise as Mr. Leech points out, new countries will grow opium when the Indian export is restricted. For China is not the only country which has cause to fear the effects of the nisuse of opium, and its derivative morphine. The United States of America, it is said, imports seven or eight times as inuch as is required for medicinal purposes, and has lately passed a law restricting this import,-
-as also has Canada. It will be open to the non-producing countries to follow this lead, and by agreement with the coun- tries of origin to control the import for medicinal purposes in whatever way may appear best calculated to guard against misuse, viz., either by a Government Monopoly, or by the institution of a system of permits to authorised wholesale dealers, who may sell only to licensed druggists.
So far as China is concerned, the bargian with India and the similar restric- tion of import of Persian and Turkish opiam relieves her of all difficulty as regards the part of her consumption which is imported. The remedy for the other which is home-grown is in her own hands. The bulk of the world's supply of medicinal opium comes from Turkey, for Turkish opium contains from 9% to 12% of Morphin as against 4% or 5% in Indian opium. The average export for the last 6 years is 718,327 lbs. and there is at present no Government control. The total export from India is put at 67,000 chests, of which 51,000 goes to China, and will presumably disappear in the course of 10 years. There remains 16,000 chests as India's contribution to the medicinal supply of the world.
revenne.
As regards the second of the "essential problems "the raising of a revenue How replace to replace that derived from opium,it would be wholly beyond my province to opiam make suggestions in a matter with which the Chinese Government is alone com- petent to deal. Already in some provinces a Salt Tax has been imposed,-in others fees for permits to buy opium. The land-tax was declared by the Edict of 1713 to be immutable for all time, though our experience in the leased territories of this Colony has shown that it can be increased without hardship. But China
Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07 in China No. 1 (1908).
The Indian Trade Journal of 12.11.08 states that the cultivation of opium is increasing in Afghanistan and it was imported thence to India for the first time in 1906-07. Quoting Stabl in the Chemiker- Zeitung (68) it adds that in the last 25 years the poppy has replaced wheat in Persia and spread over the whole country. Smokers and esters now auniber 20% of the Moslem population. Persta imports from Afghanistan (£9,364 in 03-06), __ Her exports totalled £346,145 of which 2193,061 went to India, and large quantities to Russia and Turkey.