proument is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Goverment
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
[9701]
No. 1.
226
JACK 9 APR 03!
[March 21.]
SECTION 3.
Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received March 21.)
(No. 71. Secret.) Sir,
Peking, February 5, 1908.
I APPENDED to my telegram No. 33 of the 31st ultimo a Secret paragraph to the effect that Yuan Shih Kai was under a cloud at present on account of his alleged complicity in a plot against the Emperor, and that he was taking little or no part in public affairs.
My authority for this statement is Mr. Hillier, the local agent of the Hong Kong and Shanghae Bank, whose information is largely derived from the bank's compradore, a man who mixes freely in Peking official life.
Before the coup d'état of 1898 it will be remembered that the Emperor appealed to Yuan Shih Kai for assistance, and that the latter threw in his lot with the Empress-Dowager, who made the Emperor her prisoner and resumed the direction of the Government.
Ever since then Yuan has looked forward with some apprehension to the time when, in the natural course of things, the Emperor will succeed the Empress-Dowager, and this has been a dominant factor in influencing his policy. As long as he remained Viceroy at Tien-tsin, in command of the army, he was practically master of the situation, but it became necessary to recast his plans when his enemies succeeded in depriving him of the control of his troops and getting him transferred to Peking. His chief opponents are the Manchu party, headed by Prince Chun (the Emperor's brother), Prince P'u Lun (a former candidate for the Throne), and T'ich Liang.
With the view of regaining his position and making himself eventual Dictator, it is said that in October last Yuan suggested to the Empress-Dowager the possibility of doing away with the Emperor and replacing him by Tsai Chen, the son of Prince Ching. The Empress either hesitated or refused to take such a step, and the design was abandoned. But there was a feeling of unrest amongst the higher officials, and two members of the Grand Council applied to the Hong Kong and Shanghae Bank for refuge for their families in the event of trouble.
A little before this a man named Chên, who had been one of Yuan's secretaries and had got wind of the plot, had been talking too freely, and was obliged to make his escape to Japan to avoid his master's vengeance. This man lives somewhere near Yokohama, and regular remittances are, Mr. Hillier states, sent to him by the Manchu party through the Hong Kong and Shanghae Bank. Chên recently published a manifesto for private circulation recording the evidence against Yuan. A copy of this pamphlet was brought back a few weeks ago from Japan by Prince P'u Lun and shown to the Empress, who is said to have been much alarmed by the disclosure.
Whatever truth there may be in these statements, which I report to you with all reserve, it is certainly noteworthy that Yuan has for some time past been keeping very quiet and effacing himself as much as possible. It is true that he has recently been granted the coveted privilege of riding in a chair in the palace, but there is reason to believe that his relations with the bulk of the Manchu party are far from cordial.
The cardinal fact in the present political situation in China is the cloud of suspense that hangs over the country until the question of the succession to the Throne is settled, and it is one which seems to be strangely ignored by advocates of military withdrawal and others who decline to see that there are still dangers ahead.
I have, &c. (Signed) J. N. JORDAN.
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