Enclosure 3.
2.0. 43606
1135 38 NOV 08
Hon. Colonial Secretary,
I.
I have gone carefully into the figures on
which the Opium Farmer's offer of the 3rd. instant is based and submit the following calculations as a check on his proposals.
If all Opium Divans are abolished, the Opium Farmer assumes that he will lose the whole of his DroBB Opium, and the half of his Prepared Opium, business. Therefore, reverting to paragraph 10 of my Memorandum on an Examination of the Opium Parmer's Books in May, 1908, where it is shown that
the
the expression a++y'7 + O'μ —{47+Øμ +§'+λ}
14
monthly loss of the Opium Farmer if all Divans are abolished,
since, on the Opium Farmer's hypothesis,
A = ax
ᅲ
D'u
#
Wπ
is eliminated
and ' equals $5,477.44 approximately.
The expression becomes a + e +¥* - { 4x + ¢ μ + § ' + a }
2
and substituting known values this equal
$103,292.30+$7,958.82 $15,917.64 + $15,271.00 + $2,738.72 + $29,839.43} = $47,484.33.
Therefore if the Opium Farmer will accept $45,000, he is on his own assumptions making a present to Government of $2,484.33. It is accordingly not possible to quarrel with the Opium Farmer's figures but only with his assumptions.
II.
If 52 Divans are closed, then, assuming and that all Divans are of equal value to the Opium Farmer, that therefore his loss on closing any one Divan is equal to his loss on closing any other, since the greatest possible loss, if all the 190 Divans are closed, is $66,626.22 (see paragraph 12 of my Memorandum above referred to), the greatest possible loss on closing 52 Divans will be $18,234.54: and, since it is
190 proposed that 22 Prepared Opium Divans and 30 Dross Opium Divans should be closed, the loss will be sub-divided as follows:-
(a)