4.
imbibed ideas of liberty wholly unknown to them heretofore. They have fallen easy victims to the revolutionary propaganda carried on amongst them with vigour by both Chinese and Japanese revolutionaries. These students have exaggerated and impossible ideas of what constitutes individual liberty, which leads them into ridiculous positions. The attitude assumed by these people would be comic, were it not that there is a decidedly dangerous aspect to the situation. The students energetically preach the doctrines of individual liberty, and at the same time are most keen to assert the "sovereign rights" of China. They have not the faintest notion what is involved by either of these terms, and put their own interpretation The most absurd upon them. There is no idea of perspective or proportion. pretensions are set up. The students are almost without exception Chinese, and, fired by the example of Cromwell, Washington, and other heroes of Western history, about whom they are now bearing for the first time, are anxious to reproduce in their own lives and nation the examples set by these worthics. They engage in fierce declamations and violent writings, and enthusiastically enter into the revolutionary movement, with a view of freeing the Chinese Empire from the domination of their Manchu masters.
Every attempt on the part of foreigners to open mines, negotiate loans, tender for railways, or any other public enterprise, is at once met by a chorus of disapproval by Chinese students in Japan and elsewhere. A few months ago in the dispute between the Peking Syndicate and the Chinese Government, a Shansi student in Japan put off from the shore in a boat and drowned himself, having first written a letter addressed to his countrymen stating that he could not live and see his country disgraced and her "sovereign rights" dragged into the dust by the foreigners. This act, which seems melodramatic in our eyes, inflamed the students of his own province; 2,000 of them met in the capital of Shansi-Tai Yuen-and passed all kinds of fierce resolutions. Many advised a wholesale suicide, so as to force the Government to revoke in a most arbitrary manner a contract legally entered into with the Syndicate, and which has been in operation for several years. Within the last few days vigorous telegrams have been addressed by the students in Japan to the Government against the French Railway in South China, and also in connection with the Kowloon-Canton Railway. This kind of thing takes place in every commercial enterprise in which foreigners are concerned. The mass of people have hitherto been strictly forbidden to discuss official acts. I well remember in 1894 Proclamations being issued warning people against discussing in the tea houses and other places the events of the Japanese war then in full progress. From that state of affairs to a free discussion of the Govern ment's policy is a long way indeed; from that position to connection with the revolutionary propaganda is only a stop.
Other causes are at work which increases the feeling of discontent.
In a number
of extensive areas during the last year crops have failed more or less completely. As a consequence there are immense numbers of peasant people who are either actually starving or on the verge of starvation. These are naturally ready to join any movement which holds out a hope of improving their condition. Many of these people say they have to die in any case and they may as well die fighting.
The ill-considered Opium Edicts will also throw large numbers of people out of employment, and add them to the lawless and disaffected multitude. The earlier Edict allowed a gradual curtailing of the trade, looking to its total extinction in ter years. This prudent move has given way to a hot enthusiastic impulse, which has led the Government to a policy which has for its object the immediate and total
eradication of the vice.
If this method is carried through it will certainly work disaster. In the first place, there will be a shrinking in the revenue to an amount probably exceeding 20,000,000 faels (3,000,000/), which cannot be easily replaced; in the next place, great numbers of opium shops and dens will be closed, rendering their furniture and equipment valueless. The loss will fall, without recompense, on the owners, who will certainly not welcome the innovation. Further, immense multitudes of opium smokers will be deprived of their drug, and will entertain no friendly feelings towards those who thus arbitrarily interfere with the gratification of their appetites. There are also large numbers of officials and other wealthy people who have more or less vested interests at stake, who will lose most of their money. Lastly, the immense areas of land given over to the cultivation of the poppy, yielding to the owners much better returns than can be obtained from other crops, will no longer be put to such profitable employment. All these people will be out of sympathy with the reform. I am not at all sure that this root-and-branch policy can be carried out. The plan is
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certainly ill-considered, and the Government will meet with difficulty in the carrying out of the policy. I have my doubts as to whether force of circumstances will not compel them to very considerably modify it. These and other causes have very greatly strengthened the number of secret societies which exist throughout China, and are in every case anti-dynastic.
In spite of the wide-spread disaffection, I do not believe a revolution has any chance of being successful. In order to succeed, the movement requires to obtain a definite and strong start, and to do this money, arms, and above all things a good leader, are necessary. Considerable sums of money have been subscribed, certain quantities of arms have been smuggled in and distributed, but certainly no leader, such as will command universal confidence, has yet appeared. Of course it is possible that the occasion may produce the man, but long before any successful start is made which would give the movement a distinct footing, the Government's forces from all quarters would crush it out of existence. The only chance, in my opinion, for a successful anti-dynastic revolution is for a high official, like Yuan Shi Kai, a Chinaman, with troops, money, and power to head the agitation, supposing that he ever contemplated such a course of action. As far as appearances go, therefore, a revolution does not seem to present many chances of success. There will certainly be a number of local outbreaks in various districts in China, such as has recently occurred in Ping Siang, but unless something entirely unforeseen develops, a successful revolution seems to be out of the question.
You are,
3. A Foreign War.-There remains the other danger of a foreign war. perhaps, in a better position than I am to estimate the probability of any Western Power going to war with China. China is a huge "passive resister." The Government does not actually by flagrant overt acts destroy the Treaties. It does not wage open war against foreigners and foreign interests but seeks in every possible way to restrict the rights of foreigners, and absolutely refuses to allow them to exercise the rights which are accorded in the Treaty, not by distinctly meeting the request with a positive negative, but by drawing up regulations which put the enterprises entirely beyond the range of commercial exploitation. As far as China is concerned she thus attains her ends. Though no definite action on the part of China presents a casus belli, the series of acts as effectually stop foreign enterprise as a distinct opposition Edict.
The Ministers of the Western Powers are patiently negotiating with the Repre- sentatives of the Government in Peking, but almost always unsuccessfully. If the patience of Western Powers becomes worn away to such a degree that one or more of them should say to China that they insist upon the reversal of the present policy with a threat of recourse to more violent measures unless the same is changed, China would, I think, immediately give way. Colquhoun, Michie, and other writers, refer to history to prove that China has always yielded to a threat of force. Lord Elgin's policy was never to make a just demand and recede from it. The Powers might well demand that China shall actively put into force and make effective her Treaties with the threat that, failing to comply, they will take substantial securities to compel such action and the effective carrying out of the Treaty obligations. I think such an announcement, backed with a show of force, would cause China to at once fall into line. At the same time there would always be the danger that China, inflated with pride because of her military reforms, might refuse, and, driven forward by the militant student class confident of their ability to defend the Chinese "sovereign rights," bring about a state of actual war. A war would probably be of very short duration. The Chinese armies would not have a shadow of chance against a well- equipped foreign expedition. While such is the immediate state of affairs, one can see no sign immediately apparent of any Western Power proceeding to these lengths and forcing a war with China. The lapse of time will probably accentuate the position, and may cause some Power to take a vigorous line of action from which they all now seem to shrink.
It is certain the present policy cannot be continued indefinitely, even though none of the theories enumerated above prove to be correct. Continual intrigue goes on in the Palace at Peking, and at any movement the party in the ascendant may be hurled from power.
The Empress Dowager, too, is becoming a very old woman, and, in the ordinary course of events, Nature will have her away, and she will certainly in the more or less near future be called to be "a guest on high." It is quite useless to speculate as to what will happen when that event occurs. In the meantime, as stated
at the commencement of this article, there may at any moment be a shuffling of the cards in Peking which would change the aspect of affairs. Foreigners will continue to be the sport of contending parties till an enlightened view is taken by a strong
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