344
:
22
further into Yunnan from Têngyüeh, because an immense wall of mountains absolutely blocks all progress eastwards.
Commercial Prospects of Bhamo-Tengyüeh Line.
17. After emerging from the Tapeng gorges the Bhamo-Têngyüeh line would pass through some 50 or 60 miles of populous Shan country. Then comes the Valley of Têngyuel, containing a population of about 80,000 Chinese. The value of the imports from Bhamo to Têngyüeb last year (1902-1903) was 138,9021.; and that of the exports from Têngyueh (exclusive of about 4,000 or 5,000 head of live-stock-ponies, mules, bullocks, sheep) was 26,2231. There is also a considerable trade between Bhamo and the But in con- Shan country above mentioned as to which there are no reliable statistics. sidering the commercial prospects of the line it should be remembered that the trade of Têugyteh is almost entirely a transit trade. Very few foreign goods stop there: the great bulk go through to Tali-fu and places beyond. It is only too probable that this portion of the trade will be lost to Burmah when the French rail reaches Yunnan-fu; and in the event of the construction of a British line to Tali-fu or Yünchou it would naturally be diverted to that route. The Têngyüch district itself has little capacity for absorbing foreign If the rail were built there would certainly be an increase goods brought from Burnah.
of trade in the Tapeng Valley, but not a great increase of really important trade. A quantity of meat, poultry, fruit, eggs, and vegetables would go down to Burmah, but as regards imports from Burmah the saving of time would weigh little with Têngyüeb merchants, and the rates would have to be very low indeed to compete with mule transport. With these facts and figures in view it is difficult to make out a strong case for a railway. The drawback that Bhamo is not connected with the Burinah system of railways need not be too strongly insisted on, because Bhamo possesses a magnificent water-way to the sea. It may be admitted also that the projected line would cause an appreciable expansion of trade both in the Tapeng Valley and to a less extent in the surrounding regions. But it has yet to be shown that any trade or traffic is likely to arise of sufficient volume to bring In the absence of such a proba- the day of railway dividends within measurable distance.
bility, and seeing that the line is of no use as a step in a larger scheme, the Government have without doubt done wisely in turning their attention to roads rather than railways on this part of the border.
Recent official Correspondence on the subject of Railway Extension from Lashio into
Yunnan.
15. A short account of recent official correspondence on the subject of railway extension from Burmah into Yünnan may usefully conclude this note.
19. In March 1900 the Government of India recommended that work on the rail beyond Lashio should cease. The Secretary of State agreed, and in intimating this decision to the Burmah Railways Company made it clearly understood that he did not thereby relinquish his right to require the Company to complete the line to Kulon, or to some other point on the Salween, whenever it might be thought desirable. In a memorial to the Secretary of State, dated the 14th October, 1901, the Liverpool Chamber of Commerce urged the expediency of extending British rails into Yünhan without delay. They submitted that the carrying into effect of the French railway scheme before the com- pletion of the British railway would greatly endanger British commercial interests with South China, and, taken along with the recent policy of Russia in regard to Thibet, British commercial interests with West China and the valley of the Yangtse would be seriously threatened." On the 24th January, 1902, the Secretary of State forwarded this Memorial and asked for a full statement of the Government of India's views.
20. This statement was sent to him in a long letter dated the 21st August, 1902, in which the Government of India clearly defined their attitude on the whole question. They state that the extension to Kunion would cost over 500,0001.; that if such a line is ever to pay it must look to through trade rather than to local traffic, and therefore must not halt at the Salween, but must go beyond. After remarking that the qutlay of Indian funds beyond the border can only be justified on definite grounds of Indian interests, they proceed to say that the extension must have one of two objectives,
either--
(a.) Some town or towns in Yünnan; or,
(b.) In sequel to this, a further extension to some town or towns in Szechuan.
23
In regard to (a) they believe that in view of the poverty of Yunnan and the dearth of exportable produce little freight would be attracted to the railway. "We do not say that such a venture night not be justified if it were openly intended to lead to something better and more remunerative beyond. But, judged on its own merits,
it would be of no service whatever to the Indian taxpayer."
21. As to the question of whether the rail ought not to be viewed as a possible prelude to some more ambitious scheme aiming at the heart of Szechuan, and not stopping short of the Yangtse, the Government of India say: “A consensus of expert engineering opinion pronounces that, if practicable, it could only be achieved at a cost that, in our opinion, at any rate, would be absolutely prohibitive, and that seems in the present phase of Central Asian evolution to place the idea beyond the pale of practical politics." Summing up the matter, they point out that the extension to Kunion would infallibly be regarded as having committed the Government to a course of action from which it would be difficult to recede. "We do not wish to be committed to a policy of railway experiment in or near to the borders of that part of Yunnan."
22. The Secretary of State replied to this letter in the following January 1903. He had informed the Liverpool Chamber that he was not disposed for the present to press for the extension to Kunlôn, but as there were other strong reasons for desiring better communications between Burmah and China he wished "accurate information of the best practicable route, and considered it advisable to have a more thorough survey made through the districts lying between the country now traversed by railways in Burmah and the Chiness frontier.' He accordingly desired the Government of India to carry
this out.
23. Replying to this letter on the 19th March, 1903, the Government of India ask for a clearer indication of his Lordship's wishes as to the nature and locality of the surveys before issuing the instructions desired, and they add their opinion that the cost of such surveys would be money wasted, since, in the event of construction being undertaken at a later date, the entire work would have to be done again.
24. There the matter rests for the present, but the Liverpool Chamber have not altered their opinion, nor ceased their endeavours to give effect to it. On the 18th February of this year they resolved to urge upon the India Office that "a trade route to Szechuan by the Mandalay-Kunlón or other line of railway is imperative in view of the construction of a French railway from Tonquin to Kuangsi" (sic); and at their annual meeting last June they formally recorded their disappointment at the abandonment of the Lashio- Kunlon extension.
Recent official Correspondence on the subject of a Bhamo-Téngyüeh Railway.
*C
25. In consequence of the decision of Government not to proceed with the line to Kunlon, the Liverpool Chamber turned their attention anew to the project of a rail from Bhamo to Têngyüeh. At their instance the Secretary of State wrote under date the 27th June, 1902, to the Government of India commending to their consideration the question of building a line to Têngyüch, preferably by way of Myitkyina, if after surveying the route they thought it could be made with advantage to the trade between Yünnan and North China" (sic). Later in the year, at a meeting at which the Liverpool Committee had the assistance of Major Cronin, Deputy Commissioner of Bhamo, it was resolved to "recommend the India Office to order a survey for a light railway from Bhamo to Tengyüeh via the Tapeng Valley." Before transmitting this resolution the Liverpool Chamber wrote to the Rangoon Chamber of Commerce, under date the 7th November, 1902, for their views on the subject. They received little support in that quarter. The reply was that "white fully alive to the necessity for facilitating trade with China by the Bhamo-Têngyüeh route, the Rangoon Chamber of Commerce are of opinion that while so much remains to be done in the matter of opening up the province of Burmah itself no useful end would be answered by recommending railway extension into Yunnan." Nothing daunted, the Liverpool Chamber, after considering this answer, decided to send in their original resolution, with a few verbal alterations, to the India Office.
26. Meanwhile the Government of India had on the 18th December, 1902, replied to the Secretary of State's letter. They pointed out that a rail from Myitkyina was out of the question; that one from Bhamo was comparatively easy, but that to the execution of such a project there were two very practical obstacles. In the first place it should be linked up with Katha if it were to be of any commercial value, and this would be very difficult, costly, and unremunerative; and, secondly, it could never go beyond Têngyütch,
"No great development of trade would therefore in all probability await [1802 e--2]
H