336
6
expensive than was originally supposed.* Lieutenant Watts-Jones in his Report gave the length of the line as 119 miles. This is obviously a mistake, for the length of the existing road is 143 miles, and with easier gradients the railway is likely to be longer than the road. 1 am to attach a statement, which the Consulting Engineer, Mr. J. E. Dallas, has prepared from information supplied partly by the Superintending Engineer, and partly in a Report It by Mr. Dove, an Assistant Engineer, who recently made a reconnaissance of the road. will be seen that, owing to the physical difficulties to be encountered, Mr. Dallas estimates that the total length of the line will be 176 miles, and that the cost of a railway on the 2 ft. 6 in, gauge will be 188 lakhs. If this estimate is correct, it must be admitted that the prospect of the line paying a reasonable rate of interest on its capital cost is not promising. For example, if it is permissible to assume that the working expenses would not be more than 75 per cent. of the gross receipts, the line would have to earn annually 30,08,000 rupees, or 328 rupees per mile per week, to pay 4 per cent. on its capital cost. The It appears unlikely that such a profit will be earned for many years to come. information given in Mr. Litton's note as regards passenger traffic does not show to what It is not possible, there- distance from the railway line the travelling public is reckoned. fore, to apply an empirical formula based on population to ascertain the probable volume of passenger traffic. Perhaps, however, at the outset a moderate rate of 30 rupees per Mr. Litton estimates the existing through goods mile per week might be counted upon. traffic at 46,000 mule-loads, or 92,000 maunds per annum, and the local goods traffic at something more than this, say, 110,000 maunds, which, it may be assumed; will travel over a quarter of the distance, or 44 miles. Mr. Litton supposes that the goods traffic will bear a rate based on half the cost of mule carriage. On this busis the railway rate works out to be 2:375 pies per maund per mile. This is an exceptionally high rate, but accepting this rate on the advice of the British Consul, the estimate of gross receipts on the above assumptions would be as follows:--
7
little delay as possible. If the money is found by the Imperial Government it is probable that the Burmah Railways Company would be not unwilling to constract it on the revised terms recently granted to them for the construction of the Pegu-Moulmein line, which involve them in no pecuniary responsibility. But with two lines on their hands already sanctioned, and about to be commenced, it is doubtful whether they would have the establishment needed to push the line on rapidly, and it would probably be preferable to construct it as a State line, and afterwards to make it over to the Burmah Railways Company to work.
7. While the Lieutenant-Governor, for the reasons given, is decidedly of opinion that a light railway from Bhamo to Têngyüeh is the line to which we should at once devote our attention, he would be glad, when opportunity offers, to see a rough survey carried out by a Railway Engineer of that portion of the line from Kunlong to Talifu which lies between Yunchou and Mitu. It would be interesting to ascertain once for all whether it is possible at a reasonable cost to carry a metre-gauge railway between these places across the Mekong.
8. I am also to say that the estimates given in the preceding paragraphs of the paying capabilities of the Bhamo-Tengyueh line take no account of the proposal made by Mr. Litton that Yunnan opium should be allowed to pass in bond through Burmah. If that proposal were to meet with approval, and to be carried out, the prospects of the line would of necessity be greatly improved.
I have, &c. (Signed)
J. E. DALLAS, Officiating Secretary, Railway Branch.
Passenger traffic
Through goods
Local goods
Total
Rupees.
2,75,000
2,00,000
00,000
5,35,000
Assuming again, as may very reasonably be done in a country so populous as that which Mr. Litton describes, that the existing traffic will be doubled by the construction of the railway, and by the great reduction that it will effect in the cost of transport, the gross receipts (10,70,000 rupees) would, after deduction of working expenses, represent a return of less than 1 per cent, on the capital cost. The Lieutenant-Governor, however, is inclined to think that Mr. Dallas' estimate may possibly be excessive. Mr. Litton, who is well acquainted with this country, considers that in many parts the railway may prove to be shorter than the road, and that the estimate of local traffic is not sufficiently high. Also, in the recent detailed survey of the proposed Southern Shan States Railway from Thazi to Taunggyi, which passes through an equally hilly country, and rises approxi- mately to the same elevation, the cost of a railway on the 2 ft. 6 in, gauge for 112 miles is estimated to be 684 lakhs, or approximately 61,000 rupees per mile. If we apply this rate to the 176 miles of the Tengyüeh line, the cost works out to 1,07,36,000 rupees, and to earn 4 per cent. on this capital outlay the line would have to earn only 17,17,760 rupees per annum, or 187 rupees per mile per week. There is, however, no doubt that portions of the Têngyüeh line will be very difficult. The cost will probably be somewhere between these two estimates, and reliable figures cannot be given without a detailed survey by a Railway Engineer, The Lieutenant-Governor would therefore strongly urge that such a survey should be undertaken in the coming cold weather, and that negotiations with this object should be entered into at once with the Chinese Govern- ment, or that at any rate the route of the proposed line should be examined next working season by an experienced Railway Surveyor, so that in the following years a survey party may enter upon their work fully equipped with the necessary knowledge of the route to be followed. As the value of the line will be much increased by its speedy construction to Têngyüeb, and its arrival there before the French line to Yünnan-fu is completed, it is very desirable, if the construction is decided upon, that work should be commenced with as
* Bhama to the frontier
The frontier to Tengyiteh
Miles.
51
92
Total
143
*
Pegu-Moulmein and Henzada-Kyangin.