Concession for the proposed water works, a contract valued at 500,000 taels. The French attempts to secure Macao are not yet forgotten.
France undoubtedly has interests at Canton, and she has spent much money in obtaining some and fostering others. But the last Imperial Chinese Maritime Customs Returns will show at a glance that her commercial interests are infinitesimal compared with those of Great Britain. France may perhaps fear for the safety of her proposed railway routes; but it must not be forgotten that American citizens have actually commenced the grand trunk line from Canton to Hankow, and they have therefore something to lose. Should the rebellion spread to Fuhkien, and indications seem to point to this, Japan has valuable interests there at stake. Politically and commercially, Great Britain has infinitely more reason to be apprehensive of the rebellion in South China than France, but there has been no protestation at Peking on the part of the British Minister in the matter, nor has he offered, as the French Minister has done, to lend troops to China to crush the rebellion. There are many influential Chinese, having the real interests of their country at heart, who fear that this is a move to get French troops admitted into Kwangsi and Kwangtung; and once there, like the Russians in Manchuria, when their charitable task has been accomplished, their exodus will be slow and uncertain. They judge France from her policy in Tonquin and Kwangchau-wan; in fact, they do not hesitate to say that important Chinese officials in South China have been bribed by the French to bring about this matter, and that Russian support and official intrigue at Peking will consummate such treachery. It is evident that France is striving hard to obtain those much coveted provinces and unless those three Powers, who have decided to maintain, if possible, the integrity of China, keep their hand to the plough and their eyes to the furrows in South China, the results may be disastrous. On the question of principle Great Britain must promptly and firmly object to French troops crossing the Tonquin border; in the matter of relative importance, the trade of Canton alone is worth to Hong Kong more than the whole of Manchuria. It is to be regretted that the French Colonial Office is striving to maintain M. Doumer's policy of aggression and expansion. France has done splendid work in developing Indo-China, but much remains there to be accomplished on which her energy and capital can be well expended. At present she is on equal footing in South China with other nations, and her energetic official Representatives take infinite care that their general interests are not overlooked by the Chinese. The policy of France should be to maintain the status quo, not to force issues with the object of annexation as she has been openly doing for some time past. There are ample opportunities to all traders in South China, but if France is allowed to seize those provinces, prohibition will follow, as in Tonquin. Whilst, therefore, the question of Manchuria is important, it should not be allowed to be the move to distract attention from the seriousness of the international situation in the South.
Page 4
Remarks.
There is no likelihood of the Kwangsi rebellion spreading to Fuhkien.
The French have pressed offers of troops on the Governor of Kwansi, as also a large loan.
The Chinese General known as Marshal Sou is said to be in French pay. He has been degraded and ordered to Peking.
Page 5
Remarks.
The rebellion in South China is another matter, and one which probably really affects France but little. That it is growing in importance there can be no doubt, for there is now every indication that reformer and brigand for the time are joining forces with one determined object, namely, the overthrow of the Empress Dowager and her system, and the restoration of the Emperor Kwang Hsu and his reform laws. Whether they are likely to be successful is hard to surmise, but it is now generally known in South China that a movement organized on an immense scale, and including many provinces, is likely at any moment to break out, and if so, it is bound to have immediate and far-reaching results.
The rebellion lacks coherence and has become mere organization, and brigandage. The so-called reformers remain in safe quarters in Hong Kong, Singapore, &c., from which they issue pronouncements in the press.