Canton itself is concerned, hardly one rumour concerning the state of affairs here has originated in Canton itself.
Should further rebellion be attempted, in my opinion the Imperial troops will prove capable of dealing with it.
I doubt if the population is armed so extensively with weapons smuggled from Hong Kong and Macao as it is supposed. Nor do I think the people themselves, the gentry, and the well-to-do have any desire to rebel. It seems very clear that in the Hui-chow Prefecture the rebels met with little sympathy and no assistance from the turbulent people of the Tung Kuang district, or the equally turbulent and lawless smugglers and people of the Kuei Shan district, who opposed rather than joined them.
The attempt on the morning of Sunday, the 28th October, to blow up a portion of the Governor's Yamên seems to have been a genuine attempt at political assassination with dynamite. Had it been as successful as it was abortive, it does not appear that serious consequences would have resulted. Nothing has transpired to show that any preparation had been made to take advantage of the temporary confusion that might have followed. Only three persons have so far been arrested in connection with it---one a young man named Shih Ching Ju, who has been executed; a preacher or catechist of the American Presbyterian Mission, who gave security for the rent of the house, and who has been released on bail; and a chemist named Yang, whose name was given by Shih, and who was found to have dynamite in his shop. The whole incident is very obscure. Shih himself, though not a convert, was intimately connected with converts and missionaries. His sister is a medical student in the Kuk Fon Hospital. A person named Sung, who hired the house in which the explosion occurred, and who has escaped, was a Christian. Several converts who were preachers left Canton on the arrest of Shih, and the missionaries here generally seem convinced that many of their converts, if not actually concerned, knew that some attempt was imminent.
The trade of the district, allowance being made for the entire stoppage for some months of the trade with Tien-tsin and Newchwang, shows little disturbance. The decrease in the duties collected by the foreign Customs is not more than occurs in ordinary times as compared with those of last year, which was the most prosperous the port has ever known. It is true that the banks, native and foreign, are restricting their advances, but in view of the rumours in circulation, this is hardly to be wondered at. In other respects trade is practically unaffected. It is somewhat singular that throughout the whole of the disastrous occurrences in the north this has been the case with the trade here, except in the case of that to Tien-tsin and Newchwang. It should, I think, be taken as a sign that, whatever rumours are afloat, these provinces are practically in their normal state, which may be said to indicate insurrection in one or other of them. Roughly speaking, during my service in China, I do not think a year has passed when an insurrection or rebellion has not been in progress or threatening in Kwangtung or Kwanghsi.
The attacks on the property of converts and Mission Chapels have ceased for over six weeks. They were not accompanied by any attacks on their persons, except that one Roman Catholic convert was killed and one child injured, one or two men held to ransom, and some girls are said to have been carried off. It is thought, and it seems possible, that in consequence of the Edicts, false or genuine, promulgated here, orders were in some instances officially given to loot the converts, but not to attack their persons. In others, the officials responsible made strenuous and successful efforts to maintain order. The action of his Excellency the Acting Viceroy all through, except that his orders were but imperfectly obeyed, left little to be desired. These outrages have been only partial, and none have occurred in Canton or its immediate vicinity, and I have heard of none in the Province of Kwanghsi.
It is, of course, impossible to predict what the course of events will be in these provinces. I can only say that, so far, in my opinion, as can be seen at present, no signs of immediate danger exist, although causes for uneasiness exist in several directions. This opinion is, I know, largely shared by my colleagues, and by others whose opinion is of value. If only a general settlement of affairs can be arrived at between China and foreign Powers, I think there is little doubt that in these provinces there will be no disturbance that the provincial authorities will not be able to deal with successfully, as they have with the rising in Hui-chow.
I have, &c. (Signed) B. C. G. SCOTT.
20 Feb. 1901