ing population, would, I fear, be found to render a prolonged conflict perhaps impracticable, at all; events fatal to all that constitutes the power, the well-being, and the happiness of this country." That is the deliberate opinion of a most eminent man, and one who took a calm view of things.
To show how fallacions such theories ure, look at our present position. To take our most argent needs, we want large additions to our Navy and fortifications now, and yet hundreds of millions could not get us what we want. We want breech- loading guns in our services, and cannot get them under some five years. We want a large torpedo fleet, and if we can get the boats, which we cannot of the right sort, we cannot buy a highly scientific and trained service, such as the torpedo branch should be. Lastly, we want soldiers, and cannot get them. There are many other things that can- not be had for money "when the time comes.”
To defend India it is not necessary to maintain an army beyond tho minimum necessary for preser- ving internal order, a sort of military police; that saves money. To keep a hold on the Suez Canal is impracticable; that involves responsibility in Egypt and expenditure. The attitude of Eastern Powers does not matter-they are quantités négligeables. And, finally, they will point triumphantly to the Australian colonies, and demonstrate bow, notwith- standing the severe trials of their loyalty lately enforced upon them, the Australians are contented to let things go on as they are. They will not see that although the colonies have bohaved nobly, and bave gallantly responded to the present de- mands of the mother country in her hour of need, still if war with a European Power should come, the struggle once over-whether it should prove disastrous, as it may, or only enormously costly in life and treasure, as it assuredly will-the colonies are then certain to demand separation from the parent State, which,occupying itself exclusively with its own parochial affairs, would not prepare reason- ably for the emergency so plsiuly seen to be coming. They would be mad not to do so. Even when, from time to time, some soare" created by a hostile move by one among the Powers in the armed camp arouses the nation to take some inte- rest in the question of defence, it is purely fugi- tive, and is met by the party politicians in power adopting the usual "tactics." A Royal Commis- sion is ordered,such as the one on defence of British possessions and commerce, which deliberated for years, and of which General Sir Lintorn Simmons said "My lips are sealed as to what our recom- mendations were.
But this I can say,
that not one single step has been taken hitherto, so far as I am aware, to do one single thing that we recom- mended," Occasionally, at some more than usually critical time, a hasty, ill-considered, and altogether inadequate measure is carried in the House, but, not being really seriously meant, it is never carried out to completion, often hardly begun. The wire-pullers how their master, the British public, and that he is easily Julled to sleep again. They know well how readily be believes what suits his pocket. Such were the late so-called " additions to the Navy, to be spread out over a long period, to keep down the expenditure. In the opinion of every competent English critic and every friendly foreigner, especially the naval men, whether foreigners, American, or English, whom one meets, these additions are totally insufficient and the same may be said of the proposed defence of the colonies and coaling stations. And these are only promised, mind you, not given. The manner in which the navy question has been treated shows that neither the country nor the Government realizes the condi- tion of the Navy and the dangers it involves.
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The late general movement in favour of national defence has recently been very acutely accentuated by the present Russian scare, when some additional temporary steps have been taken, steps next to useless, not really meant in earnest, but merely as blinds to public opinion and to stop the mouths of that, at times, highly inconvenient body, the Press.
The childish measures adopted to hoodwink the British public are well exemplified in Hongkong. They take in no one-at least, no one who is not either a statesman or a party politician.
They certainly deceive no foreigner. Three things are well known to be needed immediately in the Far East, and these are not mere pis-allers, but per- manently required when the fortifications, &c., are completed-namely. (a) a sufficient number of
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torpedo boats, properly manned and equipped, for all the principal harbours and coaling stations; (b) telegraphic communication, by a direct English cable, from Hongkong to Singapore; and (c) a reinforcement of the garrisons, especially at places like Singapore and Hongkong, These could all have been accomplished if Government had only taken action when it became perfectly evident to the most self-complacent placeman that Russia had made her preparations for some move. That was last September, now some six months ago. I say Russia had got ready, for navies do not lay in stores, bullion, and arrange for further supplies without reason. With the torpedo fleets the harbours of Aden, Bombay, Ceylon, Calcutta, Rangoon, the Cape, Mauritius, Singapore, and Hongkong might have been made safe against any audden attack by small feets without large landing forces. To meet this urgent want at Hongkong a tew local launches are to be armed with Nordenfeldt machine guns (not armour-piercing, recollect), for the ostensible purpose of protecting the submarine mines, and a body of flotilla volunteer, fencibles, or volunteers, with a showy title, is to be created, If it is meant to frighten the foreigners, who laugh consumedly in their sleeves over our methods of defence, then the device is futile indeed. No torpedo boats have been sent from home; indeed, their sanction has not even been recommended, far less ordered.
The importance of direct telegraphic communica- tion so as not to pass through hostile or possibly hostile territory, so invaluable at the outbreak of any war, need not be urged here. To a nation like ourselves, with the enormous interests involved, one would imagine that we should recognize the absolute necessity of being forearmed by being forewarned, and this at any cost. Far from costing an enormous sum, however, this might have been accomplished by a small guarantee contributed by the Imperial Government,Hongkong, and Singapore, and, if commenced when the scare begun, have been now working. Nothing whatever has been done in this matter; it has not even entered upon the chrysalis stage. With regard to reinforce- ments, I believe that Government has granted the necessity for these at any rate at Hongkong and Singapore; but it is now found that they cannot be spared at present. It was, of course, perfectly evident to everyone who troubled himself about the matter that, with any strain on our Army (India or home) beyond peace requirements, we cannot spare a regiment anywhere.
The official answer to all this is easy enough to predict. Put, of course, in a very much more plausible formi, the responsible oficials will tell us:-"The public are, as usual, indeed, easily alarmed, and the pernicious Press writers feed this alarmist' cry. Large additions to the Navy have been sanctioned. Works of forti- üication are sanctioned and now
in progress which, mounted with modern guns of the newest type and with the reinforcements also sanctioned, will enable places like Hongkong to laugh at the very idea of attack." But they will not explain that the Navy additions cannot be made, nor the fortifications, properly mounted, completed for years, and that if the precedent of former scares is to be followed the Navy additions and defence works as designed not sufficient by half-will, as a matter of fact, never be fully completed. Should no war break out shortly, some "able economist" will doubtless stop in and "save" the country several hundred thousand pounds, and vitiate even the miserable defences now in progress; and, unless public opinion is not only active but imperative in this matter, no reinforcements will be sent until the fortifications are completed, which, as I have said, not improbably will be never, Torpedo flotillas are unnecessary with such magnificent fortifications (probably in posse, certainly in futuro).
There are at Hongkong four torpedo boats (two inferior launches; but that, of course, it is not necessary
to mention), This, I may mention, is a stronger force than at any other foreign station.
If the colonies and Indian ports want torpedo boats or English cables they must pay for them themselves. A terrible blunder will be committed if this attitude be persisted in. Singapore is even more unprepared than Hongkong, the plans of the proposed works not having even arrived there. torpedo corps is to be organized, with head-quarters there for service at Hongkong, Singapore, &c., but composed of Malays, who, it is said, refuse to serve abroad. as already reported to you. The Straita
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Government has, it is believed, pressed the importance, the urgency, of these steps, but to no avail. They involve expenditure.
In fact, what I wrote you in the autumn of 1883, 18 months ago-with the exception of a fow sub- inarine mines, tho manning of the Wivern, and a small beginning of the earthworks of the fortifica- tions-holds equally good to day. This is what I wrote:---
The defences of Hongkong are in a precisely similar condition to those of other British possessions--whether it be Ceylon, Madras, Rangoon, Singapore, or Mauritius---ab- solutely without valuo. At present the defences consist of three forts, each with three seven-inch guns aoanted, one on the north point (of the island),and a second on Kowloon to guard the eastern entrance, and a third on Stonecutter's Island to cover the western passage. These and the turret- ship Wivern, lying unmanned in the harbour, constitute our sole defences. Yon may imagine that there is some difficulty in the way. There is absolutely none. Situated between the north-west extremity of the island and the mainland-the Kowloon Peninsula-ita entrances east and westward, landlocked by a circle of hills, might, without difficulty, be rendered perfectly impregnable by properly- designed batteries. The military strength of Hongkong is on a par with its defences-one regiment, one battery of artillery, and a dozen sappers. The percentage of sickness and for guard duty reduces the effective force for defon- sive purposos to some 600 men.
The meaning of all this is that the harbour of Hong- kong, our first commercial and military post fa the far East, which should offer a secure asylum for British shipping in time of war,and should form a place d'armes,is absolutely incapable of offering any resistance to such a fleet as has been anchored here for the last six weeks. There is no need to recapitulate the history of the local defences. It is the same heartrending story of periodical scares," report- making, patchwork temporizing, and then Etful slumber until the next scare," which is the history of all our pos- sessions. On the way out to Hongkong we had a fellow- passenger, a Chilian gentleman, whose nationality I men- tion because he was on that account qualified to be a good critic of European questions, with which he was extremely well acquainted. On seeing Singapore and Hongkong, he remarked to me, "Yes, you ought to be proud of these places. But if they belonged to Germany they would be rory differently defended." It was an unpleasant truth.
The consequence is that a considerable portion of the fleet which should be free to scour the seas will have to be tied up either here or at Singapore, or at both places, doing harbour sentry-duty, and offering a spectacle not dissimilar in some respects to the Chinese fleets, which cannot face the cnomy at sex, but are always up some river, only the Chinese ports and rivers are strongly fortified, ours
are not.
It is not only the statesmen of the Western Powers who are carefully noting and digesting all this. Our colonies and the more powerful Eastern States, China and Japan, and the minor ones, Burmah and Siam, and the people of India, are not allowing it to pass unobserved; and it is surely sinking into their minds-a hot to which I earnestly invite the attention of my countryinen. And here I would once more briefly draw attention to one side of our foreign diplomacy in the East. These Eastern States, although less powerful than the Western Military States, are by no meses un- important factors in our future, and the policy of "Don't know and don't care," of ignorance and indifference, varied by alternate bullying and surrender, which we have lately seen so igno- miniously fail in Europe, has been no success in the East. A fooling of distrust, and also of something akin to contempt, has grown gradually, until our influence is almost nil. The deep-rooted disinclination to expend money on the national defence, especially the Navy, until too late, the delays and indecision, have all been carefully marked. Popular Eastern opinion may be justly estimated by what a very astute Chinese official-I mention no names for obvious reasons--not many months ago remarked to me," England is like China in this respect, that they both have mandarins who constantly report to the Throne and country that everything connected with military preparations is satisfactory and that everything is completed, when they are nothing of the kind. The only difference is that the Chinese official is corrupt for money, the Englishman for love of office." Is there not a biting truth in the criticism }
The danger of such an opinion once taking firm root in the European mind is proved by the humiliations and the slaps in the face" to which the country has been lately subjected, as well as by cortain diplomatic reprisals "and the aggressive attitude of at least one European State. In the Last the danger is not inconsiderable. We already bare Burmah intriguing against England, or at any rate assuming a hostilo attitude towards us, which a few years ago-almost mouths, one might say-
she would never have dreamt of. Siam has turned from England, and very naturally, towards the Power on her other frontier, which has force at its back, while Japan is coming more and more under French influence, restrained only by fear of Russia. Finally he would be a bold man who would pro- nounce internal troubles in India altogether an impossibility. The impression obtains and grows on every side that England, to use the most ex- pressive phrase of one of the German papers, haa Dutchised." It is most painful and humiliating for an Englishman to have to write thus, but it is useless to mince words when the truth is known to all, those who wield power in every country except our oWB. The apathy and indifference, ending always in complications met with indecision, if continued, can only and in one way-by our following in the footsteps of Greater Holland, whose fall was brought about by pre- cisely the same causes.
become
No one but a madman, or party politician, or member of the Peace Society-who are so fond of the statement that "commerce is the great peace promoter of the world "-keeping in view what is so well known to be the present condition of Europe, can possibly delude himself into the belief that there is any hope of peace in the future. Three or four European States, already in a military sense very powerful, are continually adding to their military power, and at the same time striving hard to increase their trade, which it must not be forgotten is most easily done by usurping or carving away at the unormous monopoly which England has by her energy and foresight, but still more by her opportunities in the past, gradually built up. The problem is perfectly simple, so simple that it amazes one that the nation does not seem capable of grasping it. A commercial nation should never forget that "Les nations ne se sorvent que de in deux langues, lo commerce et la guerre fact commercial rivalry has been in past history, and always will be, the origin of the most terrible
war.
Sacrifices have to be made and serious and steadfast ones, and money must be asked for and spent liberally before we can regain our old position with regard to naval supremacy. Other nations less wealthy than England, and not despotic Govern- ments only, but liberal and democratic Govern)- ments such as France and Italy are making these sacrifices. Italy is immeasurably poor, but has faced the difficulty successfully, and is fast regain- ing her position,
There seems to be absolutely only one hope of the country arousing itself to a sense of its danger, and putting into office some strong Nationalist Government, who, while not neglecting domestic reform, will make the cordial key-stone of their policy national defence and the consolidation and maintenance of Greater Britain.
That hope rests with the coming depositories of political power, the working men, and with the Press and public men who can move them.
Thero is, I for one believe, more virility, more determination to defend, more fight in the numeri- cal majority who are about to be admitted to political representation than has latterly been the case with the controlling body of voters, but there is undoubtedly one great danger looming ahead, Their political education is naturally imperfect, and without data within their grasp to judge such questions, they may, instigated by leaders appeal- ing by communistic teachings to their cupidity- if the body of Liberal leaders remain apathetic and indifferent as hitherto-commit themselves to measures which may be subversiva of the vital interests of the country. In this respect a heavy,, indeed a terrible responsibility rests upon the shoulders of the men who can influence the masses for good or for evil.
It is useless to hope anything from any particular Government, or from the party leaders, or from the House of Commons, unless there is some radi- cal and permanent change in public opinion throughout the nation. No reform will come without the leverage of the national will being applied, expressed in vigorous language. It is not in Parliament that the difficulty exists and where reform is needed, The system indicated las created and trained a number of civil and military high officials holding office at home and throughout the world, who, for the sake of office-to their shame be it spoken-are ready to loud themselves to this process of making matters smooth for Government at any cost and of smothering the truth and fooling the public. Such a statement
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