Enclosure
7
A CHINESE VIEW OF ENGLAND'S SITUATION.
The following is a translation of a lead- ing article, entitled A General View of the Present Situation in Europe,' which appeared in the Shên Pao of the 14th March-
It is generally supposed that the con tinuation of the Franco-Chinese difficulty till the present time may dangerously affect the situation in Asia; but it is not per- ceived that Europe is not unconcerned in it, and that the troubles in Asia really arise out of designs in Europe. A thought- ful man may discern the secrets and reveal the mysteries of this crisis.
The key to the situation lies in the relations of France and Germany and the object of attack is England. We will explain what we mean. Germany and France are hereditary foes. Germany is, indeed, ever on her guard lest France revenge herself; but her precau- tions are taken quietly. Still more is she secretly desirous of the alliance of France; but she tries to bind her to her interests by underhand methods. Germany cannot openly league herself with France; so she makes use of other nations directly to join France to her. Most places in Africa are near English dependencies, and, if Germany were gradually to encroach on them, she must beware of England's re- monstrances. Should by chance hostilities arise, Germany doubts her ability to expe with England, whose feet is the larger. Therefore the Germany Emperor bad some time ago a mesting with the Emperors of Russia and Austria, aud, though only the three sovereigna know the object of it, the friendship of the three countries was, at
least, thereby consolidated. At the pre-
sent moment the Russians have moved a force into Afghanistan, which is under the protection of England. England cannot, of course, silently subruit to a sudden demonstration of Kussian military power in her dependency. And a telegram yester day announced that England will not allow Russia to move troops into Afghanistan and has requested their withdrawal. Whe- ther Russia will comply or not is uncer tain; but, if she refuse, hostilities between Russia and England will ensue.
England has dependencies in Burmah, Siam and Cambodia, and her interests are threatened by the policy of France in making war on Annam, which is to absorb all Annam and Tonquin and gradually press upon Siam etc.
The English are mainly devoted to trade and their merchants are overywhere very numerous. China is a great centre of English trade. The French are now barry- ing the ports of China, here cruising, there blockading, doing, indeed, great damage to trade. This, too, is against English in-
terests.
Of late the French have notified their intention to hold rice contraband of war, and to search vessels for it. This is not in International Law. The French having originated this rule, the other nations of Europe will adopt it as law. But the three which islands of England are so small and densely ace"? populated that her home crops are quite insufficient for her wants, and she is wholly dependent on additional supplies from the United States and other parts of America. Were this rule established, in all future wars with England, other nations would act on it and England would be a helpless and hopeless sufferer. This, too, is greatly against England's interests. Therefore England, as soon as she learned the inten- tion of France to stop rice, objected strongly, actuated therein by deep policy and foresight. But we fear England can hardly oppose this move singlebanded, and
RECR
C 0.
8016
BEST 6 MAY 15 so her anxiety will be the greater.
If Germany merely took the occupied | islands of Africa, the English might bear it without dispute; but it is impossible not to contest Russia's evident intention to absorb Afghanistan. If France should press upon Burmah, Siam, etc., England might for the present not make it a cause for dispute; but when she also raises this question of prohibiting the carrying of foodstuffs, it is impossible not to dispute it with her. The troubles of England are thus most se- rious. Some years ago Germany, being asked to arbitrate in a dispute between England and the United States about a piece of land, decided in favour of the latter, thus proving her wish to do a kindness tó the States. At the present noment the United States are improving their military system; they are increasing their army from 30,000 to 220,000 men. This step cannot be purposeless, though its object is not in- telligible. Thus England is now encircled by foes; her position is more auxions than that of China. For France's wish to stop the trib te rice will inflict little harm on China, and much on England, who cannot therefore agree to it.
England, too, is taking precautions against possible trouble. A telegram from London announces that 15,000 men are to be added to her regular army, The lan- guage is concise and no particulars are given. If only 15,000 men altogether are to be added England's power will not be sensibly increased; but perhaps one place, or one army is referred to. This shows that England cannot but do her ut- most to guard against future troubles. It is also telegraphed that Turkey has lately proposed to England a new treaty for mutual support, which is another deep scheme of the English. Turkey is half in Europe, half in Asia, and is hostile to Russia. Some years ago Turkey was Dearly annihilated in a war with Russia, but she is Russia's neighbour, so that, if Russia wants to attack England, Turkey cau take her in the rear, and expose her to the difficulty of fighting two foes. An Anglo-Turkish alliance is, therefore, good policy, Turkey, weak as she is can with England's support make herself strong, while England's strength will be further increased by acting in concert with Turkey. Those who know say that the alliance between England and Turkey is made with much the same purposes as that between ¦ Germany and Russia.
Although Italy engaged to assist England in Egypt, there is no news of any real action on her part. We suspect that the meeting of the three Emperors has made Italy doubt her ability to assist.
As regards the present state of affairs, England's difficulties are far worse than China's, and we fear that the commenco- ment of a European war is not far distant.
Germany desires union with France for her own benefit, and to enter into relations with Russia, as a means of obtaining sup- port. The strengthening of friendly rela- tions between Russia and France wonkl ronder alliance between Germany and France possible, England, though aided by Turkey, could not be victorious; espe- cially now that France has introduced the law of stopping rice, which will prove in very sooth a death blow to England. The English should certainly dispute this rule with France. It is asserted that England in refusing to allow the stoppage of rice is aiding China, but in reality England is acting in her own interests. If she cou sider this the most vital point and now forcibly check the designs of France, she may yet be in time. Should not truly the. wise men of England, of whom there is no lack, steadfastly uphold her best interests?
599
END
40