telegraph; and that the next generation will probably witness in China radical reforms, though, probably, most sweeping social and political revolution the present generation has witnessed in Japan.
I have the honour to be, My Lord, Your Lordship's most obedient humble servant SM Bowen The China Mail. HONGKONG, MONDAY, APRIL 14, 1884.
Enclosure 1.
A CRISIS has occurred in Peking the Empress of China has publicly degraded Prince Kung and four members of the Privy Council for their dilatoriness in settling the disputes in Touquin.' These are the words of the latest telegraphic advice respecting the position of the dispute between France and China. It is to be regretted that the names of the four members of the Grand Council who have been degraded by the Empress-Regent are not given, because if they were one could judge with more certainty if this strong official proceeding favours peace or war. Prince Kung has generally been classed by foreigners as a member of what may be termed the war party. If this surmise be correct, the telegram indicates peaceful settlement of the difficulty. The reading of the telegram in this light is also supported by the wording of the advice. Dilatoriness in settling the dispute is complained of, and the highest Chinese official at Peking—Prince Kung is President of the Grand Council as well as of the Office for Foreign Affairs—is degraded in order apparently that the arrangement of terms between France and China may be hastened.
A well-informed correspondent, writing to us from the North some days ago, shows us pretty clearly which way the wind was blowing, and almost anticipates this important telegram. He writes: The summons of Li Hung Chang to the capital, as has lately been reported from the North, is a sign that the Chinese Government is waking up to the gravity of the situation. For the last eight months that eminent statesman has been in the shade. The running has been taken out of his hands by such men as Prince Chun, Peng Yu lin, Tso Tsung-tang, and Tseu Yu Ying, who have been doing their very best, in a spirit of ignorant conceit, to bring the risks and dangers of a foreign war on their country, but now that it is apparent what a mess things are getting into, he has been recalled to help them out of the difficulty.
It is a sign that fresh considerations will be imported into the counsels of the Chinese Government, but, at the same time, those that are hoping for a speedy settlement must not be too sanguine of this result. Li Hung Chang is too good a patriot to advise his Government to accept anything like humiliating terms, even if his advice were all powerful, which we know at the present moment it is not, but it is most probable that he will urge a re-opening of negotiations with a view to prevent any further advance of the French troops towards the frontier, or any demonstration against other parts of the Empire. The Marquis Tseng has been apparently left without instructions pending the result of the operation against Bacninh, but we may expect to hear soon that he is in communication with the French Foreign Office, empowered to offer more liberal terms than heretofore."
None understand better than the Chinese how to spin out a diplomatic fight after it has been brought to the very brink of a settlement, or how much mere delay and worry counts in their favour. In this case, if they can only induce the French to postpone further action till the summer is well advanced, the odds will be greatly in their favour. The heat, malaria, fever and mosquitoes will play sad havoc in the French ranks, and there will be a general desire to get out of the place at all costs. A change of parties in France might materially alter the situation, and, in any case, the ardour of establishing a protectorate would probably have somewhat abated.
But we trust the French will not be ill-advised enough to listen to any proposal for delay. Whatever difficulties there may be in pressing forward at the moment, they will be greatly enhanced by a postponement. If action must be taken against some other part of China to enforce a settlement, it should be taken without delay. And we urge this not in the interests of either France or China particularly, but for the good of both. The longer the dispute is kept up, the greater the expenditure, and the more the difficulty of a final arrangement which shall not be ruinous to the one side or the other.
There is a not inconsiderable party in China, composed mainly of the so-called Compradoric class, who think that a sharp and decisive war, in which China should be utterly beaten, would be about the best thing that could happen to her. They think it would sweep away once and for all the cobwebs that Peng Yulin and such like have bound round the eyes of the Imperial Court, and enable men of clearer heads and broader vision to have their way in state affairs.
If the war were a war with England, we should be much inclined to agree with this view. We should know that in that case such terms would be made as would leave the country all the better for them. It is well known that Li Hung Chang, if he could only have his way, would sanction a concession for the construction of railways to-morrow. It is also well known that, if a concession were granted, the capital to any extent required would be forthcoming in a week. We also know that the mere building of the railway would, by the expenditure of the large sums paid for coolies' wages, confer a great and immediate boon on those districts through which it passed, and we know that in a few years it would carry new life and prosperity to parts that are now languishing Further, any one of half a dozen lines that might be mentioned would, if given fair play, be paying handsome dividends within a short period.
All these benefits are actually lying close at hand and capable of being immediately realized, but simply because Peng Yu-lin, and obstructionists like him, refuse to yield, they are likely to be deferred for the next fifty years. We do not blame these old conservatives so much as pity them. No doubt they are honest enough and think they are saving their country by keeping out such innovations, but none the less they are an incubus on the nation, Now if all these advantages could be secured to China at the cost of a war, then we agree
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