HONGKONG, JUNE 5TH, 1883.
THE recent disaster which has befallen the French troops in Tonquin will necessitate the employment of a much larger force than has in France been deemed necessary for the occupation of Tonquin. The expedition now on its way out from Toulon was, according to one authority, to consist of three transports carrying 1,500 to 1,800 marine infantry and artillerymen, while another paper, the Gaulois, states the transports Vinh-long, Shamrock, Annamite, and Bienhoa were to convey the expedition, which was to consist of three battalions of marine infantry. A blockade of the coast was also to be established with twenty-four vessels of war. This force is, however, totally inadequate for the purpose of effectively occupying Tonquin. It will only bring the present force in the country up to a strength of some 4,000 men, and, according to a Haiphong correspondent of the Temps, small-pox has carried off a considerable number of the troops garrisoning Hanoi.
If the French Government wish to avoid a succession of disasters, of which the late one outside Hanoi will be the smallest precursor, they must despatch at least ten thousand men to Tonquin. The position there is certainly critical. The Black Flag band are said to number from seven to eight thousand men, and to be armed with breech-loading rifles, while the Yellow Flags are even more numerous, and not less unfriendly to the French. The Annamites have thrown in their lot with these bands and can give some assistance, while it is pretty certain large bodies of troops are being collected on the frontier of Tonquin, and may at any moment be marched across the border.
The reverse sustained by the French troops and the death of that gallant soldier Commandant Rivière, have also encouraged the Chinese to believe that their interference in Tonquin may be attended with some success. They will be as sure to attach too much importance to the success of the Black Flags on the 19th ultimo, as Europeans are to under-estimate an Asiatic enemy, and may grow arrogant in consequence.
The loss sustained by the Hanoi garrison has been made good by a reinforcement of 250 men from Saigon, but the blow dealt to French prestige cannot be so easily repaired. What the real intentions of the Chinese Government are cannot be foretold, but LI HUNG-CHANG is coming south, armed with powers to levy men and prosecute a war. The Grand Secretary will, however, first see Monsieur Tricou, the new French Minister to China, and may perhaps be able to arrange some amicable settlement of the questions at issue with him.
But, as matters stand, there seems little prospect of this, and hence it behoves the French Government to send sufficient troops out not only to occupy Tonquin and establish order there, but to hold it against an invading Chinese force. The French Authorities do not yet appear to recognise the critical position in which they might be placed by an invasion of Tonquin by twenty or thirty thousand well-armed Chinese troops. Four thousand French soldiers are no doubt equal to crushing the whole might of Annam, but the case is far different when they have to face the Chinese troops, who, if not endowed with too much courage, at least possess fairly good arms and could fight behind stockades.
Tonquin is a difficult country, and a guerrilla war might be waged there by very indifferent troops for a long time. If therefore the French Government wish to avert further misfortunes they should lose no time in despatching a supplementary and much larger expedition to Tonquin than the insignificant force which left Toulon on the 20th May.