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ANNEX B
Alternative Futures for Hong Kong
(a)
Continuance of the present status quo up to and beyond 1997 by negotiated and public agreement with the Chinese.
Prospects: Doubtful. Such an agreement would involve
overt Chinese agreement to the continuance of colonial status which may be ideologically unacceptable and difficult to defend against Russian propaganda in the Third World. In the UK interest in view of the contingent immigration liability but increasingly difficult to defend politically here against the background of decolonisation generally; and postponement of the problem will not make it easier to solve in the longer
term. Dependent on continuance of present Chinese policy into
the 21st century and continued control of Peking Government over China generally. Confidence-building in Hong Kong.
(b)
Continuance of the present status quo up to and beyond 1997 with tacit Chinese acquiescence.
Prospects: Easier to achieve than (a) but in some ways
less favourable to the UK. China free to terminate at any time: UK's ultimate negotiating position correspondingly weaker. Less good for confidence in Hong Kong but tolerable.
(c) Continuance of the present status quo in exchange for recognition, either explicit or implicit, of Chinese sovereignty and, in the other direction, of UK as good sitting tenants. Probable consequence: appointment of Chinese Government 'representative' in Hong Kong.
Prospects: Promising. Probably sufficient to reconcile Chinese ideological and pragmatic desiderata. Confidence-
building in Hong Kong; but appointment of Chinese representative could, in certain circumstances, risk erosion of Governor's position and emergence of dual authority.
(a) As at (c) with freedom to move towards an elective system
for the Legislative Council.
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/Prospects:
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SECRET