installations.
Warning of Attack
15.
14
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Security measures in Communist China are strictly
enforced, and information on movement of the armed forces is
accordingly difficult to obtain. It is unlikely that precise
warning of imminent attack could be obtained other than in
exceptional circumstances.
16.
An attack on the Colony is unlikely to take place
without a prior worsening of international relations and of
the internal situation in Hong Kong, possibly leading even to
closure of the land frontier and restrictions on sea movement.
At the same time, Chinese Communist land and airborne forces
might be built up and re-positioned, and amphibious and
supporting fleets might have to be assembled. These
deliberate moves would be very difficult to conceal.
17.
In this connection, the build-up of Chinese Communist
ground forces North of the land frontier is unlikely in itself
to provide warning of imminent attack. Such a build-up could
take place progressively over a long period; troops being
concealed in the numerous tunnels in the Sino-British frontier
area. It is noticeable that the general tendency has been for
the Chinese army adjacent to the Sino-British border to move
closer, as communications and camps in the area are improved.
At present we consider that the ground force could concentrate
in the frontier tunnels for an attack in the course of two
This concentration might not be observed.
nights.
18.
As regards air forces, air divisions are often in
transit through South China and the grouping of such aircraft
in the Canton area would therefore not necessarily on its own
indicate the imminence of attack. However, the concentration
of large numbers of transport aircraft in the Canton area
would be a good indication of the likelihood of an airborne
assault, as these aircraft would have to be assembled fairly
near to the Colony to enable them to carry out quick follow-up Page 94 of 283
Page 94 and resupply sorties.
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