Aim
ORIG. ON 15013
LOCAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
HONG KONG
COPY No. 30 LIPage 1 of 288
231.
22nd September, 1958
SCALE AND NATURE OF A POSSIBLE COMMUNIST
ATTACK AGAINST THE COLONY OF HONG KONG
UNDER CONDITIONS SHORT OF GLOBAL WAR UP
TO THE END OF 1962
1SD 105/68/02
1.
The aim of this report is to estimate the size and
nature of a possible Chinese attack upon Hong Kong under
conditions short of global war up to the end of 1962.
Assumptions
2.
Any attack on the Colony would almost certainly
be accompanied or shortly preceded by internal unrest,
terrorism, sabotage and strikes. This threat is considered
in JIC(57)114(F) dated 21 November 1957, and LIC(HK)9/58
dated March 1958.
30
An attack on the Colony is possible at an early
stage of limited war between East and West anywhere in the
world, or even in isolation at a time of poor relations
between the United Kingdom and United States Governments.
40
The problem of Formosa will not have been resolved
by 1962.
5.
A limited war elsewhere in the Far East is not
likely to materially affect the scale and nature of an attack
on Hong Kong.
The Threat
6.
Provided that the Chinese
(a)
believe that an attack on Hong Kong would lead
to a full scale war with the West, or
(b)
continue to value the use that they themselves
are able to make out of the Colony (e.g. foreign
exchange) or
Page 81 continue to value the possible influenpagÙ‡Vf ZIF
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