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FORKICI: OFFICE, S.W.1.
February 19, 1957
we were interested to see from your telegram: No. lê of February 8 that Crozier hed reported the United States Consul General in Hong Kong as having given him definitely to understand that the Americans were committed to the defence of Hong Kong.
2. In fect the position at present is that, although staff talks on the defence of Hong hung were held there last year, by United Kingdom and United states officers, these were without commitment and the American Government is not committed to the defence of the Colony. Perhaps the Consul-Jeneral was merely repeating Rankin's view reported in paragraph 6 of your telegram No. 140 and Crozier misunderstood him. It would be interesting to know what answer the Associated Press representative got to his approach to the United Stetce Formosan Defence Command, if you can find this out.
3. We would agree with you generally that an attack on Hong Kong is improbable for some time to come and that the Chinese will concentrate on regaining the territory by peaceful means. Before the Hong Kong riots of last October we would probably also have agreed with you that any attack on Hong Kong would be unlikely without a simultaneous attack in Formosa or some prior solution of the Formose question. The scale of the riots and the ease and rapidity with which they spread, however, now incline us to think that the Chinese might, in suitable circumstances and if they thought that they could get away with it, be tempted to try to pinch off Hong Kong, before dealing with Formosa, by the encouragement of large-scale disturbances in the Calony, which would give them a pretext to move in, ostensibly to restore order. We do not think that this is immediately likely but we must now contemplate it as a possibility.
is. I am sending copies of this letter to C'Neill in Peking, Ledward in Hong Kong, Mackintosh in Singapore, de la Mare in Washington and Johnston in the Colonial office.
A. A. E. Franklin, Laq., U. B.z.,
TAKSUI.
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