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of indiscriminate air attacks against military and civilian
targets combined with small scale naval operations by MTBS,
saboteurs and mining against ships using the port. We do not
think that any major attack would take place by land of which
we would not have a least 48 hours warning.
(b) Prepared attack. In conditions of attack after full
preparation we believe that the air threat be no greater in
scale than that shewn above but that attacks would be better
co-ordinated: the naval threat would be similar but on an
increased scale and would include escorts and amphibious
forces: the land force threat would be increased to a maximum
of two armies, totalling 100,000 men. Positioning of the
extra naval and military forces would give up to 7 days warning
of the impending assault.
NET THREAT
23. In the light of the basic threat summarised in the
preceeding paragraphs we have carried out a study of the
targets which might help to reduce to a minimum, the scale of
the Chinese offensive, by the use of allied nuclear counter action.
24. These targets fall into two general headings, i.e. airfields
and land battle tactical targets. We have assumed a bombing
accuracy of 50 per cent circular error of 600 feet.
Airfields
25. There are a total of 26 airfields within 500 miles of
Hong Kong. In this total there are, at present, only four
airfields within range of Hong Kong suitable for the operation
of jet fighter/bomber type aircraft. Of the remaining 22 only
two are, at present, capable of operating medium jet light
bombers.
26. There is at the moment an extensive programme of airfield
construction and maintenance under way in South Chine and
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