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destroyers, would be held ready for similar employment if the U.S.
carriers were to come within range of shore based air cover. It
is therefore unlikely that either Chinese or Russian modern
cruisers, destroyers or submarines would be spared to support the
communist land forces in the early stages of a global war.
8. Surprise Attack. In the case of a war starting by a surprise
attack the immediate naval and amphibious threat could only come from MTB's, amphibious craft and motorised junks which are based close to Hong Kong and through in the Pearl River Area.. We estimate that the Communists could improvise an escorted amphibious assault for 10-15,000 men accompanied by craft capable of torpedo attacks and mining and underwater sabotage. Any
assault could be supported by gunfire from neighbouring islands and
small naval ships.
9.
Prepared Attack
The
In the case of a prepared attack the naval threat would, for the reasons given in paragraph & above, not be augmented by modern cruisers, destroyers and submarines. danger would, therefore, come mainly from those additional escorts, MTBS and amphibious craft which could be spared from other operations. We believe that, if no other amphibious operations were planned to take place at the same time, sufficient ships and junks could be found to mount an amphibious assault on Hong Kong of up to 150,000 men supported by escorts, MTBS, minelaying
and underwater sabotage.
Land Forces
10. In assessing the land forces likely to be employed in an attack we have considered the Chinese formations available,
which are as follows:
(0) The 42nd Army is in the East River eres with two divisions
south of the River and one in the Canton
(b)
arse.
The 47th Army is in the eneval area 300 miles to the
north.
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