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would probably regard Hong Kong as an objective to be attacked in order to gain an early victory and thus improve morale. They would also wish to neutralize it as a base for intelligence. It seems likely, therefore, that Hong Kong would be attacked immediately on the outbreak of war. Other campaigns would probably
be undertaken at the same time but we do not think that they would
significantly affect the scale of the threat to Hong Kong. Although
the Russians might assist indirectly by relieving the Chinese of
some of their responsibilities in the north they are unlikely to
assist directly in an attack on Hong Kong.
THE SCALE AND NATURE OF AN ATTACK
*
5. We believe that, should global war occur between now
and 1960, the greatest advantage to the communist leaders would
be to take the initiative and exploit surprise to the utmost.
They would therefore aim at achieving surprise for their main
strategic nuclear attack and would subordinate all other preparations
to achieve this end. Hong Kong could only therefore expect
immediate attack by those forces already in position to launch
an assault at the time this strategic attack was delivered.
6. If, however, global war broke out after a period of mounting
tension permitting preparations to be made the communists would he
able to build up their forces sufficiently, in their view,
to ensure rapid success. We therefore discuss below only the
following cases :
inbitu
(a) Attack by the forces insitu at the outbreak of war.
(b) An attack with full preparation.
Naval Forces
7.
We believe that, in whatever circumstances global war started,
the first task of the Chinese Communist and Soviet Far Eastern
fleets would be the defence of the mainland. Most of their submarines
would therefore be employed in searching for and attacking the
carriers of the U.S.
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carrier task force: cruisers, supported by
* JIC (56)4 (Final)
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