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(b) Worst case :
Two armies, one artillery division one sea transport regiment (100,000 all ranks, 250 guns (excluding AA artillery) and 520 medium and heavy mortars.)
We have no means of knowing what tanks might be employed.
6. We do not believe that airborne troops would be used, except possibly in small numbers for their nuisance value, owing to the nature of the ground. There are however two dropping zones in the New Territories available during the dry season.
7. Surprise attack. At the moment the Chinese forces in the general area of Hong Kong are not sited to launch a surprise attack. In a global war it is considered that the Sino-Soviet bloc would not prejudice the chance of obtaining strategic surprise by making any preparations for a surprise ground attack on subsidiary objectives like Hong Kong. o believe however, that internal troubles, on immediate local initiative might break out in Hong Kong within a few hours of the commencement of hostilities.
8. Attack after full preparation. We consider below four possible courses of action which the Chinese might take. In any of these, military operations would be supplemented by attempted riots, strikes and sabotage by Communist sympathisers among the civilian population.
(a) Course A. A massed frontal assault against the main defences in the New Territories. This would be a simple form of a ttack, with the maximua artillery suport. A disadvantage would be the couparetively narrow front (about 12 miles) and the danger of presenting worthwhile nuclear targets to the defence.
(b) Course B. A large scale seaborne assault against the New Territories or Hong Kong Islands, or both, with secondary land attack in the New Territories. A considerable amount of practice would be required and the concentration of shipping might prejudice supplies. Chinese amphibious resources are believed to include only one sea transport division and this might well be required elsewhere. There would be the serious danger of interference by warships and aircraft. The Chinese would very likely consider this an excessively hazardous operation.
(c) Course C. A massed frontal assault against the New Territories combined with small diversionary seaborne attacks against the New Territories, Hong Kong Island, or both. It might be possible to achieve surprise and confuse the defenders. The small-scale seaborne attacks would be within the capabilities of the Chinese.
(a) Course D. A massed frontal assault against the New Territories combined with strong seaborno attacks against the New Territories, Hong Kong Island, or both. This course would be the most dangerous as our defences might be out flanked by substantial Chinese forces. It would however require considerable amphibious concentration and there would be serious danger of interference by warships and aircraft.
9.
It is considered that either Course C or D would be the more likely. Page 87 of 154
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