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DRAFT
TO BE RETURNED TO THE SECRETARY, JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE J.I.C.(56)50(Revised Draft)
14th June, 1956.
CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE
JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
THE MILITARY THREAT TO HONG KONG UP TO 1960
Draft Report by the Joint Intelligence Committee
As invited by the Chiefs of Staff, we have examined the circumstances under which an attack might be made on Hong Kong, its probable scale and the nature and the extent to which the attack might be reduced by nuclear counter action. Our report is at Annex.
CONCLUSIONS
2.
Our conclusions are:
(a) In circumstances short of global war the Chinese
Communists are unlikely to launch an attack on Hong Kong; they are more likely to try to obtain it by other methods. In global war, however, we would expect attacks on Hong Kong in the early stages. (b) A surprise attack by the forces in position at the
beginning of a global war would be on a relatively small scale and we would expect to receive at least 48 hours warning of attack by land. These attacks would be combined with a limited sabotage and terrorist campaign. (c) An attack after full preparation in global war would
be better co-ordinated, on an increased scale and accompanied by attempts at large scale acts of sabotage and terrorism.
(d) Nuclear counter-action by the Allies would reduce the
air threat to negligible proportions and would have decisive results against worthwhile naval or amphibious concentrations. Against land forces the effectiveness of nuclear weapons in reducing the scale of attack would depend on the extent to which the Chinese troops were forced to concentrate and on the availability to our ground forces of specialized nuclear weapons.
RECOMMENDATION
We recommend that the Chiefs of Staff take note of our report.
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE, S.W.1. 14th June, 1956.
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