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SCALE AND NATURE OF A POSSIBLE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATTACK
AGAINST THE COLONY OF HONG KONG UP TO THE END OF 1958
CAPABILITIES OF CHINESE COMMUNIST ARMED FORCES
Naval
1. The Chinese Communist Navy (CCN) consists of two fleets; the Northern, based mainly on Tsingtao and Shanghai, comprising the bulk of the CCN, and a small Southern Flect based mainly on the Pearl Piver and Hainan Island. Details of these flects are at Appendix A, Part 1.
2. The Southern Fleet when concentrated is only capable of:-
(a)
Minor harassing operations using the one Frigate, MTBS and MGBs.
(b)
A fairly extensive mine laying campaign using small craft and junks.
(c)
Amphibious landings of limited extent aided by a
very elementary form of gun fire support.
It should be possible before operations against the Colony were mounted for the CCN to re-inforce the Southern Fleet, should they wish to do so, with elements of the Northern Fleet assuming the following can be provided:-
3.
(a)
Adequate air cover for the Fleet's passage through the Formosa Straits from the now usable airfields in the coastal area of Fukien Province.
(b)
Adequate defence of their Northern bases during the absence of the Northern Fleet.
4.
The problem of defending the Northern bases during the Floet's absence could be solved by either the Soviet Far East Fleet accepting this responsibility, or certain units of the CCN being retained to provide the l defence. Of these two courses, it is considered the latter is more likely because the Soviet Floot would almost certainly be employed in furthering their overall strategic plans in the Far East.
5. Nevertheless some units of the CCN Northern Fleet could be made available to re-inforce the Southern Fleet which would considerably improve the latters striking power for an attack on Hong Kong. Chinese Nationalist Forces would be unlikely to be able to inflict serious losses or hinder this re-inforcement. The probable composition of this re-inforcement is given in Appendix A Part 11. For those reasons at paragraph 4, the Soviet Far East Fleet would be unlikely to assist directly in an attack on Hong Kong, except perhaps with some submarines.
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