Σ
TOP SECRET
Page 50
24. We therefore consider that the use of nuclear weapons within the immediate battle area against targets of opportunity would reduce considerably the Chinese scale of attack. The amount of reduction will depend upon the availability and development of specialised nuclear weapons for use by Allied forces and the degree to which the Chinese concentrate their forces. If our forces in position at the outbreak of war included a number of small and highly mobile land force units equipped with light weapons which had a nuclear capability, we consider that the amphibious and land force threats could be very considerably reduced.
Naval Targets
25. Any concentration of amphibious forces or major war vessels might present a worthwhile target.
CONCLUSIONS
26. Our conclusions are:-
(a)
(b)
(c)
The Chinese are likely to attack Hong Kong in the early stages of global war or of a limited war in the Far East in which the United Kingdom is involved. It is also possible that Hong Kong might be attacked in isolation if the Chinese doubted our determination to defend it and thought it could be overrun before the arrival of reinforcements.
relative
Immediate attock by the forces in/position at the beginning of a war would be on a/small scale and we might expect to receive up to 48 hours werning of attack by land forces. These attacks would be combined with sabotage and terrorist campaigns on immediate local initiative.
An attack after full preparation would be better co-ordinated, on an increased scale and accompanied by attempts at large scale acts of sabotage and terrorism.
(a) Nuclear counter-action by the Allies would reduce
the air threat to negligible proportions and would have decisive results against worthwhile naval or amphibious concentrations. If specialised nuclear weapons had been made available to our land forces in numbers the scale of Chinese ground attack could be very considerably reduced.
See T.S. A UnEres
thipoven (129).
Page 50
5 -
TOP SECRET
Page 50
>
®)-
Antirunt from Tic (56) 57 + Mly (Dep Directors - 20.6.56
53