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12. Air Force. We estimate that the CCAF would not support an attack on Hong Kong with more than 140 jet fighters, 60 jet light bombers and 60 jet ground attack aircraft. They might, in fact, not spare so many jet fighters if China were A small being subjected to Allied strategic nuclear attack. CCNAF force, including jet light bombers, might be used against men of war and shipping in the Hong Kong area. immediate threat would, therefore, be one of small scale air attacks against military and naval targets.
The
13. Navy. The immediate threat could only come from the few MTBS and armed junks stationed in the Pearl river area and would be likely to consist of torpedo, mining and underwater sabotage attacks on shipping in the Hong Kong area. Within about 48 hours an amphibious lift for 10,-15,000 men could be improvised.
Servis
14. Internal diversions. We would expect the above attacks to be combined with Acts of sabotage and terrorism on inediate local Initiative.
Attack after full preparation
Lun
of 126
2+10
15. Land Forces. Even if China were involved in other campaigns we consider that the attack would be made by a maximum of two armies with supporting arms, totalling 100,000 men, and that it would take the form of a frontal assault against
We the New Territories combined with seaborne attacks. cannot estimate whether the latter would be diversionary or on a large scale although we consider that, for lack of sea room and suitable landing areas, any amphibious assault would
We do not believe that airborne be limited to about 50,000 men. troops would be used except possibly in small numbers for their nuisance value.
16. Air Force. Because of the increased readiness of the Allies for war we do not believe that the Communists would wish to provide any air forces additional to those in para. 12 above. In the event of an attack on Hong Kong in isolation we consider that the scale of air attack would not be increased, in fact it might be decreased if the pretext for invasion were the need of the Chinese Communists to protect their nationals.
17. Navy. In global or limited war ocean-going submarines would be employed in defence of the mainland against Allied carrier forces. The naval threat would, therefore be augmented only by destroyers, escorts, additional MTBS and coastal
Without knowing the submarines as well as amphibious craft. circumstance leading up to the outbreak of war we have no means of estimating how many shipps would be spared from other
In the worst campaigns to support the attack on Hong Kong.
case, however, where Hong Kong was attacked in isolation we consider that the threat would not consist of more than half the offensive ships of the Chinese Navy, amounting by 1960 to an estimated :-
Spl
10. destroyers
Sfrigates
submarines
GO MT S
12 gunboats of various types
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