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Land Battle Tactical Targets
23.
As the initial assault would probably be maintained from stockpiles previously established south of the East River attacks on targets on the lines of communication in the area immediately north of Hong Kong would not cause a serious and immediate reduction in Chinese logistic capability. The distances are short, cross-country movement is practicable and large scale logistic backing would be unnecessary. We think therefore that the likely targets for nuclear attack would be concentrations of troops within the area. Thess targets could only be located by reconnaissance. The effectiveness of these attacks would depend primarily on the degree to which Chinese troops could be forced to concentrate before launching their attacks and therefore present themselves as worthwhile nuclear targets. However, in view of the narrow front and the lack of room for manoeuvre the Chinese forces must be forced. to concentrate at some points before launching their attack; the extent of these concentrations would be further influenced by the degree of resistance offered by the defenders.
24. We therefore consider that the use of nuclear weapons within the immediate battle area against targets of opportunity would reduce considerably the Chinese scale of attack. The amount of reduction will depend upon the availability and development of specialised nuclear weapons for use by Allied forces and the degree to which the Chinese concentrate their forces. If our forces in position at the outbreak of war included a number of small and higaly mobile land force units equipped with light weapons which had a nuclear capability, we consider that the amphibious and land force threats could be considerably reduced.]
Naval Targets
25 Any concentration of amphibious forces or major war vessels might present a worthwhile target.
26
Our conclusions are:
CONCLUSIONS
(a) The Chinese are likely to attack Hong Kong in the early stages of global war or of a limited war in the Far East in which the United Kingdom is involved. It is also possible that Hong Kong might be attacked in isolation if the Chinese doubted our determination to defend it and thought it could be overrun before the arrival of reinforcmenets.
(b)
Immediate attack by the forces in position at the beginning of a war would be on a relatively small scale and we might expect to recieve up to 48 hours warning of attack by land forces. The se attacks would be combined with serious sabotage and terrorist campaigns.
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