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6.
In global war the Chinese would probably regard Hong Kong as an objective to be attacked in order to gain an early victory, which could be exploited for morale and propaganda purposes. They would also wish to neutralize it as a centre for intelligence. It seems likely, therefore, that Hong Kong would be attacked almost immediately on the outbreak of war and simultaneously we could expect serious outbreaks of terrorism and sabotage in Hong Kong itself. Other campaigns in the Far East would probably be undertaken at the same time but we do not think that these would significantly affect the scale of the threat to Hong Kong. Although the Russians might assist indirectly by relieving the Chinese of some of their responsibilities in the north they are unlikely to assist directly in an attack on Hong Kong.
7. It is possible that the Chinese Communists might become involved in a limited war in the Far East in which the United Kingdom was also involved; in this case also the considerations given in para. 6 above would apply.
8.
THE SCALE AND NATURE OF AN ATTACK
We believe that, should global war occur between now and 1960, the greatest advantage to the Communist leaders would be to take the initiative and exploit surprise to the utmost. They would therefore aim at achieving surprise for their main strategic nuclear attack on the U.S. and Allied bases overseas and would subordinate all other preparations to achieve this end..
9. In the above case, or in the event of a limited war breaking
out elsewhere in the Far East, Hong Kong could only expect immediate attack by the forces already in position at the time war started. Up to 48 hours warning would probably be received of the earliest land and amphibious attack by formations in strength.
10. If, however, war broke out, or Hong Kong was attacked in
isolation, after a period of mounting tension permitting preparation to be made, the Chinese would be able to build up forces large enough, in their view, to ensure rapid success. Positioning of the extra naval and military forces would, we consider, give up to 7 days warning of the impending assault.
THE BASIC THREAT TO HONG KONG
Attack by Forces in Position at the Outbreak of a War Starting
by Surprise.
11. Land Forces. From its present position with two divisions south of East River and one in the Canton area the 42nd Army, which is the main formation within 100 miles of Hong kong, could not launch a large scale surprise attack either by land or sea. Immediate attack could only be made by the small numbers of frontier guards actually deployed along the border but an attack with about 50,000 men, could be made within 48 hours.
Ø JIC(56)4(Final)
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