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5.
As regards countries at present neutral, Russia must for the present be kept quiet until the time is ripe to deal with her. That, except in dire extremity, will be after the overthrow of Britain. The war on two fronts is an ever present nightmare to Germany. Nevertheless fear of Germany is the basis of Russian policy. The attitude of Spain towards German invasion is still uncertain. the most important factor is the economic one, dealt with below. In regard to America, Hitler openly ranges her amongst his enemies already,
6
Probably
In France pro-English sentiment is growing. Moreover the French Government is terrified of being bombed by England. Consequently France is not likely to join the Axis in the war against Britain on any terms.
The presence of Weygand in Africa, the territorial integrity of the French Empire and possibly the existence f the French Fleet are regarded by the French Government as an insurance against undue German pressure.
Economic. By July, 1941, Germany will be short of certain important commodities (such as rubber, tin, nickel and possibly chrome) and will be faced with the prospect of a much more general shortage in the following twelve months. No single project of territorial expansion offers the prospect of alleviating more than one or two of the major deficiencies.
B
The position of Germany in regard to oil is fully X dealt with in the fifth report of Lord Hankey's Committee. At the present rate of consumption Germany must deplete her oil stocks at a rapid rate until the end of March 1941. Until this date, however, she will have adequate free stocks to supply any military operation she might undertake. From April 1941 onwards Germany's oil position will depend upon largely increased supplies coming from Rumania. Should these supplies be seriously interfered with the drain on reserve stocks will continue. If, in addition, serious damage is inflicted on Germany's synthetic oil plants the free stocks of oil available for major military operations would approach exhaustion in comparatively few months.
Germany cannot, therefore, allow the British to become firmly established, in strength, on the mainland of Greece whence the Rumanian oil refineries could be attacked from the air.
It should be noted that the considerable surplus stocks of refined oil products held in Rumania would be available for any operations Germany might undertake in Eastern Europe.
Could Germany free the Eestern Mediterranean from the domination of the British Fleet even to the extent of permitting coastwise oil traffic the position would be much improved.
The consolidation of the British position in Greece might have further serious results on Germany's economic position in that it would tend to strengthen Turkey to refuse supplies of certain cm.dities badly needed by Germany and would encourage Yugoslavia to adopt a less helpful attitude in the economic field.
X P.0.G.(40)64, dated 16th December, 1940,
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