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11.
Portugal would almost certainly become involved in any Axis move in Spain. The enemy being certain to seize bases on the Atlantic coast of Portugal and if possible also in the Azores (unless forestalled) to further the U-boat blockade.
CONCLUSIONS.
12.
We anticipate the following moves on the part of the Axis Powers:-
(a) Continued preparations for a sea-borne invasion
of Great Britain as an ever present threat to immobilise our forces. This threat is likely to remain at any rate so long as Germany retains numerical air superiority, for implementation if and when conditions become suitable.
Failure to secure air superiority and some
measure of control at sea, and the increased strength of this country render invasion hazardous. Weather conditions during the
winter will add to these risks.
(b) Intensified attempts at blockade by sea, and
air attacks against our shipping and territory, with the object of strangling our trade and demoralising the population by every possible
means.
(c) Early Axis action with the object of gaining
control in the Mediterranean area, taking the form of:-
(i) intensification of the Italian attack in
Egypt through Libya with German help, coupled possibly with an attack through the Sudan.
(ii) further German penetration south-east through
the Balkans, together with Italian
occupation of Greece. An advance through Asia Minor is unlikely until the late
spring of 1941 owing to climatic conditions. (d) Sustained political pressure on Spain to enter
the war.
(e) Immediate intensification of Axis propaganda
and subversive activity throughout the Middle East.
Richmond Terrace, S.W.1.,
10TH OCTOBER, 1940,
(Signed) V. CAVENDISH BENTINCK.
J.H. GODFREY.
F.G. BEAUMONT-NESBITT.
A.R. BOYLE.
N.F. HALL.
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