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Factors which may limit the enemy scale of air attack
23.
In the above paragraphs the maximum scale of
The enemy effort has been assumed in each case. necessity however to concentrate troop-carrying aircraft and fighters in the North West of France on a limited number of aerodromes would expose them to the attacks of our bombers and also afford us warning of the operation.
JONCLUSIONS
24.
We assess the maximum scales of attack as follows:-
(a) Seaborne attacks
The main landing might consist of a maximum of five divisions, some of which would be armoured, and which could be landed at a major port in one week, Subsidiary landings might be made at the same time at other points.
Even if the expedition succeeded in evading interception during passage, we might reasonably expect to inflict heavy casualties by naval and air action on the port or ports of disembarkation, thus reducing the ultimate scale of attack by perhaps as much as 50 per cent. We therefore conclude that the probable maximum scale of seaborne attack which could be developed in Eire, would-be of the order of two to three divisions, a portion of which might be armoured.
(b) Air attack
Though Ireland is technically within range of the whole German long-range bomber force, and over Southern Ireland can be escorted by long-range fighters, it is improbable that the scale of attack would exceed say 600 bombers on the first day, and it might thereafter be expected to decline within a week to a maximum daily scale of not more than 150 bombers.
(c) Airborne attack
For a full-scale air invasion of Ireland it is possible for the Germans to deploy up to say 12,000 airborne troops, plus a proportion of stores, on the first day and thereafter to fly in substantial reinforcements and supplies. If operations were confined to the Southern Coast this number could technically be exceeded, though it appears more likely that the employment of such large numbers of airborne troops would be uneconomical and probably not more than 8,000 would be carried on the first day.
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