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ANMEX I.
DISTRIBUTION B..
From: JAPAN.
Decypher.
Sir R. Craigie (Tokyo).
28th September, 1940.
D,
R.
6.50 .m.
8.00 a.m.
28th September, 1940.
29th September, 1940.
No. 1905.
39
IMPORTANT.
Pact with Axis fits in with development of Japanese policy since formation of new Government. It is a direct and perhaps inevitable consequence of collapse of France.
2. Despite the chorus of approval in whole of the press there is undoubtedly much silent questioning of the wisdom of this step particularly in view of disproportionate benefits gained immediately by Germany and Italy as compared with those secured by Japan. Latter amount to public endorsement by two world powers of Japan's aims in East Asia, and it appears that the Japanese Government hope to secure German intervention in Chungking with a view to mediation in Sino-Japanese conflict. Extent to which Soviet co-operation has been obtained, e.g. in freeing Japan's hands in the North, is of vital importance. On my questioning my Soviet colleague today, he said without hesitation that he had no knowledge of terms of agreement, nor did he know whether the Soviet Government had been notified in advance but admitted that this was probable. I pointed out the ultimate dangers to the U.S.S.R. of this combination. We have agreed to keep in close touch on the subject.
3.
Source quoted in my telegram No. 1835 who belongs to pro-British faction stated that our best counter move would be the visit of the United States naval force to Singapore as this would be more likely than anything else to give extremists pause. An agreement with the United States to permit use of case by United States Naval vessels at any time would in my opinion serve the purpose equally well. Case for repudiation of Burma route agreement is greatly strengthened but we shall doubtless consult wishes of the United States Government on this question. On the other hand with our position vis a vis Germany being progressively reinforced in Europe, there is still some hope of a reaction leading to narrow interpretation of agreement by Japan, but in view of present state of the feeling here I confess that this is at present very slender.
4.
Text of agreement published being only a summary, it is possible that some secret clauses may redress balance of advantage somewhat in Japan's favour. Thus there are probably clauses giving Japan a reasonably free hand in Indo-China and Netherlands East Indies, while Germany may also have agreed to take certain definite steps to secure an improvement in Japanese-Soviet relations, leading each to conclude a non- aggression pact. It should be our policy to check-mate this latter move if at all possible.
Repeated to Washington telegram No. 18, Shanghai telegram No. 261 and Moscow telegram No. 1 all three last posts Saving.
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