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[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Correspondence with regard to New Zealand Naval Policy.
My dear Colonel Allen,
February 14, 1913.
WE have been thinking over the conversation which we had with you on Monday, and there are one or two points which I ought again to bring to your notice before our next meeting.
In the first place, let me preface my remarks by stating that His Majesty's Government do not depart from the opinion they expressed in previous conferences, that it is for the responsible Governments of the Dominions to determine what they think best for their own interests, and that, while the Admiralty think it right to leave no doubt as to their views upon the strategical position, yet they will do their best to give full effect to the ultimate decision of your Govern- ment.
At the present time New Zealand and Australia are perfectly safe from all danger of external attack, because they are protected by the naval power and the alliances based on the naval power of Great Britain. The only event which could expose them to any danger would be the destruc- tion of the British naval power in Home waters. If that occurred, there are no preparations which could be made by Australia and New Zealand jointly or separately which would, during at any rate the next fifteen or twenty years, enable those Dominions to cope with the naval power of Japan. The Japanese have at present, built and building, a navy of sixteen battleships and four of the best battle cruisers in the world, together with many minor vessels, and they are maintaining and in- creasing their navy each year by Estimates which already exceed 94 millions sterling. You will see for yourself from these figures that any naval force which by their utmost efforts Australia and New Zealand could provide in the near future, could play only a small and subsidiary part in their defence against oversea attack. At least nine- tenths of the work would have to be done by the
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