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11. Having regard to these considerations, the Admiralty are of opinion that, under existing conditions, it is not reasonably probable that any attack on Prince Rupert more formidable than a raid by one or two unarmoured cruisers will be undertaken.
12. The above opinion on the scale of probable attack on Prince Rupert is based upon a consideration of the strategic conditions created by the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Should the Anglo-Japanese Alliance be determined, changes in the strategic situation in the Pacific would ensue which might affect the position of Prince Rupert. It is probable, however, that considerations of the risk she would incur of embroiling herself with the United States would deter Japan from undertaking military operations on the American Continent.
Standard of Defences.
13. In the Colonial Defence Committee's Memorandum No. 417 M., dated the 7th July, 1910, it is stated:-
"27. In regard to the question of the local defence of naval ports and commercial harbours, it has already been explained that the protection afforded by the navy constitutes their main security from attack from the sea in war; but it is obvious that naval action alone will not serve to guarantee absolute immunity from hasty predatory attacks by hostile warships, which may have succeeded temporarily in evading the vigilance of our fleets.
To render all ports of the Empire absolutely secure against such attacks, the provision of local defences at each port would no doubt be necessary. As, however, our resources are not unlimited, it is not possible to make every portion of the Empire secure against all the contingencies of war. All that can be aimed at is to provide for the defence of important and vulnerable objectives against such forms of attack as, having regard to the strategic conditions, are regarded as reasonably probable."
14. Owing to the remoteness of Prince Rupert from foreign naval bases and from the main theatres of naval wars, it is improbable that hostile warships would be found operating in the neighbourhood of that port in time of war, and consequently the chances of attack even by raiding cruisers are extremely small. It is suggested, however, in view of the probable development of the port in the near future, that fixed defences on the moderate scale required to deter attack by unarmoured cruisers should be provided at Prince Rupert.
15. In the absence of plans showing in detail the topographical and hydro- graphical features of Prince Rupert, and the position of docks and other vulnerable objectives, existing or projected, the Colonial Defence Committee do not feel qualified to make detailed recommendations regarding the fixed defences. They desire, however, to draw attention to their Memorandum No. 376 M., dated the 2nd January, 1907, on the general principles governing the standard of fixed defences at Colonial ports, in paragraph 11 of which the nature of armament required to meet the attack of unarmoured cruisers is discussed. The Committee adhere to the opinion expressed therein that the 6-inch gun is the most suitable weapon to deal with this form of attack.
16. In expressing the above opinions as to the defences of Prince Rupert, the Colonial Defence Committee have not taken into consideration the possibility of that port being developed as a naval base for Canadian warships stationed on the Pacific Coast. They have not sufficient information as to the future naval policy of the Canadian Government to enable them usefully to make any suggestions to meet possible future naval developments, but they would observe that should Prince Rupert or another port on the Pacific Coast ultimately be developed as a naval base, the inducements to a hostile naval commander to attack such a port will thereby be materially increased, and consequently the scale of probable attack and the scale of defences required to meet it would have to be reconsidered.
(Signed)
J. R. CHANCELLOR, Secretary,
Colonial Defence Committee.
February 21, 1911.
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