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modern Japan could bring to bear on British possessions in the Pacific. For, so long as the Japanese Alliance remains operative, not only is the risk of attack by Japan excluded from the category of reasonable probabilities to be provided against, but British naval requirements are held to be adequately met if the combined British and Japanese forces in the Eastern seas are superior to the forces of any probable combination of two naval Powers.
10. Having regard to these considerations, the Admiralty adhere to the view that under existing conditions it is not reasonably probable that any land attack on Australia, more formidable than a raid by a small landing force such as could be conveyed by three or four unarmoured cruisers, will be undertaken.
11. The above opinions regarding the scale of probable naval attack and attack by military landing forces are based upon a consideration of the strategic conditions created by the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
Should the Anglo-Japanese Alliance be determined, changes in the strategic situation would ensue which might have far-reaching effects upon the position of Australia and necessitate a reconsideration of the scale of probable attack.
2, Whitehall Gardens, S.W.,
February 24, 1911.
8
PRINTED AT THE FOREIGN OFFICE BY J. W, HARRISON,—17,5/1911.
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