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Dr. Morrison of the "Times" informed me at Peking the other day that the capitalised value of British interests at Shanghae and up the Yang-tase amounted to the immense sum of 850 million sterling. I could hardly believe this, but he assured me it was correct.
Whether that is so or not, the total British interests in the Far East are of stupendous value, and they all pivot on Hong Kong.
Now the vast fortunes that have been accumulated, and are, I hope, now being made, all, or nearly all, find their way eventually to England. None of our merchants in the Far East dream of settling permanently out here; they all labour to enjoy the evenings of their lives in Great Britain.
It is probably no exaggeration to say that in death duties alone from the members of one great firm, Jardine, Motheson and Co., the British exchequer has received far more than is spent on the armament of the island.
Of all possessions Hong Kong is the one that most clearly illustrates in the concreted form the commercial genius of the British race.
21. When this now beautifully wooded island was acquired in 1841 it was a treeless and almost uninhabited waste; now it is not only one of the most important commercial centres in the world, but also one of the fairest spots on the globe, and the richest island in the world for its size.
The sunset panorama from the peak is of incomparable beauty; there is no such view elsewhere.
Hong Kong holds the same position in the Far East as Tyre did in the Near East in Biblical days, and it would require an Ezekiel to properly describe her riches and glories, and more than a Jeremiah to record the lamentations that would resound throughout the Empire on her fall.
England depends on her trade as much as a ship does on her cables and anchor.
Hong Kong is the anchor at the end of the Far Eastern trade, and that anchor should be without a flaw and embedded in security. At present "'tis but a sandy nook against a tempest."
In General Sir F. Owen's Report I read: "According to the Committee's instructions the only form of attack now considered reasonably probable, by day, is long range bombardment.”
Now if there is one fact that stands out clearer than all others in the history of wars it is that great commanders win glorious victories by doing what ordinary men consider unreasonably improbable.
Belthassar did not consider it reasonably probable that Cyrus would divert the channel of the Euphrates, so lost his life, and the Babylonian Empire disappeared.
Montcalm did not consider it reasonably probable that Wolfe would scale the heights of Abraham-France lost Canada
Admiral Brueys in Aboukir Bay did not consider it reasonably probable that any man would risk his ships between the French line and the shore, so was totally destroyed by Nelson.
The War Office did not consider it reasonably probable that the Boers would invade our territories, did not even possess Ordnance maps of our own Natal-result, if it had not been for the providential and unforeseen assistance from the Royal Navy, England would probably have lost South Africa.
History is full of such examples, and the moral breathed out in the agonies of death by Æsop's one-eyed doe should always be remembered.
22. There are over 10,000 first-class troops at Manila always ready for embarkation, and they might at any time overwhelm Hong Kong with less notice than is even given by a typhoon.
The United States of America has complete control of telegraphs, and no difficulty in obtaining sufficient tonnage for a two days' excursion.
There would be no warning before the transports and escorting ships were sighted, and then no resistance possible, for, incredible as it sounds, those two excellent harbours on the south coast, Sam Shui Wan and Taitam Bay, are devoid of defences or protection of any sort or kind, the former under 3 miles, and the latter less than 5 miles, as the crow flies from the town of Victoria and dockyard, and both with excellent roads.
It may
be taken for granted that plans for the immediate and easy capture of Hong Kong are ready in the army and navy bureaus of the United States of America in the event of war unhappily breaking out between the two countries.
28. Another, and perhaps the greatest, future danger of all is General Owen's accepted proposal to entirely remove the armament bearing on the inner waters and anchorages.
There are no harbour restrictions at Hong Kong, and our Foreign Office would never permit them to be altered during strained relations, as doing so would precipitate the conflict England is always anxious to avoid.
Thus a battle-fleet could enter and have Hong Kong absolutely at its mercy.
That this is no imaginary danger recent history shows, for it is only some twenty years ago that the French fleet acted similarly, getting behind the Min River fortifications whilst negotiations were still in progress and destroying at their ease the unfortunate Chinese on declaration of war.
Wars between nations nowadays have nothing or little to do with race hatred. They are mere matters of business.
Prussia's aggression on Denmark, followed by the war with her ally Austria, was solely for territory desired to round off the German Empire.
Japan's war with China in 1895 had Formoss as one of its principal objectives.
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