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I especially draw your attention to Tsingtau and Manila. You will observe that Germany and America, both young nations confident in their destiny, are working for posterity, providing these powerful fortifications for the trade they hope to possess in the future, whilst England is too niggardly to properly protect the vast treasures she enjoys at present.
16. As you are doubtless aware, at the present time a very powerful American battle-fleet is
lying in Manila harbour, a couple of days easy steaming from Hong Kong.
Now, for the sake of argument, suppose this fleet to be on the war-path.
Take Vladivostock first: there the American Admiral would find a really first-class strong- hold, and would wisely turn away-no sailor would care to engage that heavily fortified place, even if it was also not well provided with a mine-field, as is supposed to be the case.
Next on his way south he would have a look in at Tsingtau, and there he would find a second-class fortress, with, besides guns of lesser calibre, five 11-inch ship-destroying howitzers, also six 11-inch battle-ship-piercing guns, all thoroughly protected, and unless he were prepared to lose half his fleet he would seek an easier prey and wend his way to our beautiful Hong Kong, and here to "deter him" (I use Sir F. Owen's own expression) he would find three semi- protected 9.2-inch guns.
What would happen? An abject surrender, preceded possibly by the useless sacrifice of our gallant gunners, and “ Old Glory," as the Americans call their flag, would supplant our dear old Union Jack.
At the present moment, you. I, and all Hong Kong are absolutely at the mercy of America, and I, as an Englishman, object to be at any one's mercy.
Once having taken Hong Kong, our friend the American Admiral would be content with his glorious prize, and would not dream of risking his precious ships against the 12-inch howitzers and heavy batteries of Saigon.
17. You will observe that England alone (through motives of economy) of all these nations has no 12-inch guns, and this is all the more extraordinary as for some years past the British Admiralty have ridiculed, possibly rightly, the use of smaller guns even as a secondary battery against battle-ships.
Now it may be said that there is no danger of such an attack, and no doubt at the present moment this is the case, owing to the extraordinarily successful peace diplomacy, which is the truest glory of the present reign.
Well, I earnestly wish that peace to continue, but on the principle that "How prone to doubt, how cautious are the wise," I agree to and subscribe to the Colonial Defence Committee's dictum contained in their enclosure to your letter of the 31st August last.
"It is highly probable that changes in the political and strategic situation in the Far East would develop more rapidly than special anti-torpedo defences could be designed and constructed."
18. A fortiori this also applies to the main defences.
The weakness of Hong Kong is a terrible temptation to other uations.
Look again at my table of comparative strengths, and it is at once obvious if Russia, Germany, France, and America consider it necessary to spend such vast sums in protecting their comparatively unimportant possessions they must one and all despise our puny defences.
They do not deliberately waste their resources-Germans, for instance, are as careful as Scotchmen, and equally averse to spending a shilling where a sixpence is sufficient.
The defencelessness of Hong Kong is known to all nations their men-of-war are constantly
in our waters, it being by far the most popular resort in the Far East.
For instance, our excellent friend Admiral Coerper is due here in a week or two in his flag-ship the "Fürst Bismarck," and remains five or six weeks, and he and his officers will roam unchecked over our mountain paths.
I would not have it otherwise, but I wish them to respect our strength and not chuckle over our weakness.
19. On the 30th September this year I notice that Sir Robert Hart, a man of peace, if ever there was one, addressing the autumn assembly of the Baptist Union at Bradford, used these words to his peace-loving audience: "I speak as a Briton to Britons, and say we must be careful to see that no criminal weakness should tempt any strong foe."
Criminal weakness is not a phrase I would venture to employ myself, but there are many who would probably consider it to accurately describe the defencelessness of Hong Kong.
It appears to me that the authorities at home do not realize the supreme importance of Hong Kong.
It is no exaggeration to say that the fall of Hong Kong would mean the downfall of the British Empire. The loss of prestige could not be survived.
What would Australia say?
Think what Hong Kong is.
Her ocean shipping is the very greatest in the world, for, according to "Whitaker's Almanack,” her tonnage (excluding the enormous local junk traffic) entered and cleared is nearly 22,000,000 tons, even exceeding that of the Port of London, and considerably greater than that of India, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada combined.
And yet there are persons who look on it but as a small coaling place, not a prize to be envied or fought for by great countries.
20. What would happen to our enormous interests in Shanghae and Tien-tsin and growing trade with Japan if Hong Kong fell? They would all dwindle away.
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