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11. The following particulars of the nearest naval ports and the available military forces of Powers having possessions on the Pacific serve to indicate the relative capabilities of cach to despatch a military expedition against Hong Kong :-
(a.) France.-The French fortified port nearest to Hong Kong is Saigon, 930 miles
distant.
The peace strength of the garrison of French Indo-China is now 25,000 men, of whom 11,690 are Europeans. In the event of war 16,000 to 18,000 native reservists and 8,000 gardes indigènes would be available, besides about 7,000 Europeans who have undergone military training. The native troops are indifferent and the military position is still considered somewhat precarious, although the internal conditions of the country are improving.
(b) Germany, The German fortified port nearest to Hong Kong is Kiao-chau
(“Tsing-tâu ”), 1,080 miles distant.
The establishment of the garrison of Kiao-chau is 2,240 men. There are also about 400 reservists, who can be called out when required. (c.) Russia.—The Russian fortified port nearest to Hong Kong is Vladivostock,
1,660 miles distant.
The war between Russia and Japan has been so recently concluded that it is not yet possible to forecast the future naval and military position of Russia in the Far East, though their military garrisons will probably be of considerable size.
(d.) United States.-The American fortified port nearest to Hong Kong is Kavite
in Munila Bay, 630 miles distant.
The strength of the United States garrison in the Philippines is about 12,000 regular troops and 1,300 Marines. There are in addition 5,000 Philippine Scouts, commanded by American officers, and 6,500 Philippine Constabulary, officered by Americans and l'hilippinos.
(e.) China.-The naval forces and naval ports of China may for the present be neglected. The Chinese have of late shown themselves to be of little account as a fighting Power, and at present their ability to act on the offensive is small. An army organised on the modern European system is now in process of being created, of which eight divisions are complete, and portions of ten other divisions are in existence in various parts of the country.
(f.) Japan.—The nearest base in Japan is Nagasaki, 1,070 miles distant from Hong Kong. There is also an advanced base at Kelung in Formosa, 500 miles distant, and the fortified naval port of Makung, in the Pescadores, is 317 miles distant.
Japan has a standing army of nineteen divisions complete and fit for service in every detail. A division at war strength is about 20,000 men. With the addition of certain reserve brigades and of her national army, Japan could probably place over a million men in the field.
Formosa has a garrison of three mixed brigades, about 15,000 men.
12. Having regard to the comparative weakness of their naval and military forces on the Pacific, it is to the last degree improbable that either France or Germany could bring against Hong Kong any military landing force more formidable than the present defences are calculated to meet, viz., a maximum landing force of 4,000 men ; while Russia, in spite of her great military resources in Eastern Asia, owing to her naval weakness, appears for the present to be precluded from undertaking serious attack upon Hong Kong,
13. In view of the limited military force available in the Philippines and of the remoteness of the contingency of a war with the United States, it is not considered necessary, in calculating the standard of the local defences required at Hong Kong, to take into special consideration the scale of attack that could be brought to bear by that Power.
14. The Chinese have hitherto shown themselves to be of little account as a fighting Power. Although they have at present little power of acting on the offensive, it will be prudent to bear in mind the possibility of an attack from Chinese territory, which might in the future be on a formidable scale, if undertaken by a Chinese
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