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MALTA:
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CONSEQUENCES OF A TOTAL WITHDRAWAL OF BRITISH FORCES
(Previous Reference: OPD (67) 5th Meeting)
The Committee had before them a note by the Secretaries (OPD(67) 10)
to which was attached a report by officials which examined the military,
political and economic consequences of the withdrawal of all our forces
from Malta.
THE PARLIAMENTARY UNDER-SECRETARY OF STATE FOR COMMONWEALTH AFFAIRS
said that the report stemmed from a decision of the Cabinet, when
considering the situation that bad arisen as a result of the adverse
Maltese reaction to the announcement of our plans for a reduction of our forces (CC(67) 4th Conclusions, Minute 1). It demonstrated clearly how
serious would be the consequences, both for Malta and for the United
Kingdom, of a total withdrawal of our forces. Malta would suffer a drop in gross national product of 25 per cent if our economic aid continued
and possibly of 40 per cent if aid were discontinued. Unemployment would
rise to 25 per cent if aid continued and to about 30 per cent if it did not.
The added damage which could be caused to Malta by the termination of
economic aid might be crucial, and underlined the need for us to avoid
committing ourselves publicly at the present stage either to continuation
or discontinuation of aid, These economic consequences could lead to
very serious political and social instability in the island. For the
United Kingdom, although we should save on planned local defence expenditure in Malta (£12.5 million at present reducing to £6 million by 1970-71) total withdrawal would bring substantial economic and
financial penalties, notably the loss of valuable stores including large stocks of ammunition; but the military and political consequences, in
relation to our military commitments, our relations with our allies and
our international standing generally, were yet more serious. The practical
obstacles to total withdrawal could be formidable: the Maltese could not
be expected to facilitate our withdrawal and they might well hinder it to
an extent that would lead to incidents involving bloodshed.
It was therefore greatly in the interests both of Malta and of the
United Kingdom to avoid a breach in which we should be obliged to withdraw
all our forces. No reply had yet been received from the Prime Minister of Malta (Dr. Borg Olivier) to our message inviting him to come to this
country for discussions about our defence rundown. In a statement to
Parliament early on Thursday, 9th February, Dr. Olivier had indicated
that while our invitation was under consideration, Maltese Ministers took
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