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The forecast of the Scottish Education Department assumes continua- tion of the Goschen formula (whereby the greater part of the Vote for Scottish education is under Statute fixed each year at eleven-eightieths or 13.75 per cent of what is required for the corresponding services in England and Wales). The school population of Scotland is at present about 13.5 per cent of that of England and Wales and by 1960-61 is expected to have fallen to about 13 per cent, so that Scotland would be getting an increasing grant per child compared with England and Wales.
The forecast for universities assumes that the present annual rate of increase is maintained, but this is without prejudice to the decision of policy which will be required when the grants are fixed for the next quinquennium starting in 1957.
6.
ASSISTANCE, FAMILY ALLOWANCES AND WAR PENSION
The bulk of the provision required for the National Assistance Board relates to payments to people in need. The scale rates of National Assistance must provide subsistence and increases in thern tend to follow quickly after price increases. In February, 1955, the rates were raised by 2s. 6d. to 37s. 6d. for a single person (63s. for a married couple) plus rent. Much of the benefit of this increase has already been offset by higher prices of food and fuel, and it would be unrealistic to assume that the current scale rates can remain unchanged over the next five years. Allowance has been made also for some increase in numbers. The forecast for 1960-61 shows an increase of £15.3 millions over 1955-56.
The forecast for Family Allowances assumes that the present allowance (8s.) will remain unchanged. The increase in expenditure on this service in 1960-61 over 1955-56, £5,8 millions, is mainly due to the natural increase in the number of eligible children; about £2 millions of the increased cost would arise from the operation of the proposed Bill to extend to 18 years the upper age-limit for children at school and apprentices.
The forecast for War Pensions assumes that the current rate of pensions and allowances will be maintained throughout the five-year period. The steady decline in expenditure over the period, £ 12 millions, is due to the decrease in the number of pensioners as a result of death, recovery or remarriage.
7.
HOUSING
The forecast for housing in England and Wales is based on the assumptions that the present standard housing subsidy from the Exchequer (£22 ls. Od. for sixty years) will be maintained only for slum clearance, and replaced by a subsidy of £10 for houses built for general needs and a subsidy of £24 for houses built for overspill, with adjustments also in the special subsidies for flats; and the numbers of subsidised houses completed in a financial year will fall as in Appendix II from the current figure of 160,000 to 120, 000 by 1957-58, remaining thereafter at that level. In the forecast for Scotland, it is assumed that the present Scottish subsidies will remain unchanged, and that the numbers of subsidised houses completed will fall from 34,000 in 1955-56 to 23,000 in 1960-61. No allowance is made for reductions in the Scottish housing subsidies which it is contemplated Pige cpm ita effect after legislation amending the Sc
Scottish ating system.
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