Page 103 I doubt whether in fact the process of ratification in France will be completed before the end of the year. Quite apart from the obvious doubts which exist in France about the political wisdom of ratification, there is also the serious practical consideration that the sooner a beginning is made with the German contingents, the greater will be the competition for the military equipment available, principally from the United States, during the next year when supplies are severely limited. The time it will take to secure ratification in Germany is also speculative, in view of the strength of the opposition to Dr. Adenauer and the uncertainties that will inevitably be produced by the diplomatic offensive of the Soviet Union. I believe that the Netherlands ratification process is also unlikely to be completed speedily and this may be true of other E.D.C. countries. My conclusion is that it is unlikely that ratification by all parties will be completed earlier than 1st November (which is the date which the Federal Government is now assuming for its own financial calculations). If this proves to be so, our fuli Deutschemark requirements for the local costs of United Kingdom forces will be met from the German contribution until 30th June, 1953. If the date is later, we should gain financially.
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4. The agreement with Germany provides that for the period after 30th June, 1953, the total German defence contribution is to be established on the same standards as that of North Atlantic Treaty countries and is to be used in part to assist to meet the costs of non-E.D.C. Powers with forces in Germany!! The amount to be provided for this purpose is to be nego- tiated with Germany and the E.D.C. The negotiations for a German contribution to the support of our forces in the period after 30th June, 1953, will be difficult, for we must assume that the E.D.C., with which to a large extent they will be conducted, will then be in being. The French have made it clear that the E.D.C. will demand first priority for the meeting of its needs from the contri- butions to defence of all members, including the Federal Republic, before anything is provided for countries which are not members. We have good counter-arguments in the important part which our forces in Germany must play in the Western Defence plan and in our own economic difficulties, and I hope that we shall be able to obtain full American support. Nevertheless, we cannot be optimistic about the outcome of the negotiations, especially as we shall have to reckon with the proba- bility that after June 1953 the cost of the German contingents will be mounting rapidly. While, therefore, we shall not relax our efforts to obtain a substantial contribution from German sources, I think we should be wise, for our own domestic purposes, to assume that the assistance that we shall receive from German sources after the middle of next year will be very small.
Foreign Office, S.W. 1,
·· 9th June, 1952.
A. E.
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