55. This organisation has invited the major producers and consumers of critical raw materials to take part in international commodity committees. These committees will "consider and recommend to Governments the specific action which should be taken in the case of each commodity in order to expand_production, increase availabilities, conserve supplies and assure the most effective distribution and utilisation of supplies among the consuming countries." The first commodity committees have already begun their work. Copper, zinc and lead are being discussed in one group, molybdenum and tungsten in another, manganese, nickel and cobalt in a third; their are separate groups for cotton, wool and sulphur. The results of their work will not be known for some time. Further groups may be formed very soon. While the Government hopes that this country will get relief in some critical cases, it is conscious that the problem before the free world is extremely difficult, and that shortages of materials for civil use must be faced in the interests both of our own defence production and that of our allies.
56. The United Kingdom is also taking part in examinations of this problem in the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and is maintaining close contacts with the other members of the Commonwealth. The shortage of raw materials cannot be regarded merely as a transitory problem associated with rearmament. Greatly increased supplies of nearly all the main materials, or of substitutes for them, are going to be required in the future in a world of high employ- ment and rising industrial activity, particularly when Germany and Japan get back into full production. Economy measures therefore will have to be maintained over a long period, and it would be a mistake to look upon them as short-term expedients only. Furthermore, it is of the utmost importance that new sources of raw material supplies should be developed as rapidly as possible. The United Kingdom, in consultation with other members of the Commonwealth, is giving the closest attention to this question in the convicton that world demand for most materials is likely to press hard upon supplies for many years to come.
Industrial Productivity in 1951
57. With these serious problems of material supply before us, can past productivity trends be expected to continue? Table 6 shows employment and output indices for recent years in summary form. From these it can be inferred that, very roughly speaking, productivity in the industries covered by the Interim Index-manufacturing, mining, building and public utilities- has increased by an average of 7 per cent. a year during the last three years, while for manufacturing industries alone, on which the direct burden of defence production mainly falls, the increase has been even greater.
58. A great deal more is involved in this question than the supply of raw materials. Until recently it had been feared that these very rapid increases were due to factors connected with the transition from war to peace which would soon become much less important. The process of post-war recon- version must obviously now be complete. Most arrears of maintenance and replacement in industry have been worked off. Many technical advances held up during the slump and war years have been generally adopted. All this might be taken to imply that the easiest gains in productivity must already have been secured. Indeed, in the Economic Survey for 1949, it was suggested that those processes must have come to an end in 1948. But the record shows that such arguments were misleading. Productivity since has increased as fast or faster. How is this to be explained?
59. Technical advance continues unflagging. Never have greater efforts been made in scientific and industrial research, public and private, than to-day. Never have employed and employers been more alive to the needs and opportunities for improved organisation and technical training, a par- ticular tribute being due in this connecton to the work of the Anglo-Amercan Council on Productivity. Again, full employment and an absence of selling problems have made it possible for manufacturers to plan for long runs, and they and their workers have both abandoned some of the restrictive habits of thought inherited from earlier years. The rate of investment in plant and machinery remains very high, and though, as will be shown below, some diminution appears inevitable, this in itself is not likely to have serious results in the short period. There seems therefore little reason to believe that the recent record of improvement could not be maintained. Were we assured over the next two or three years of adequate material supplies from overseas. the prospects for British output would be excellent.
60. As has been shown, it is impossible at present to make any exact forecast of the supplies we are likely to be able to obtain in the next year or
So.
But even if such a forecast could be made, this would not in itself enable Pages wfpyßto be predicted with any accuracy. There arPergaon 587
for this, First, the switch-over of many factories to defence is bound to entail temporary dislocations to the flow of output. There will be delays for
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