Page 809 raw wool, tin, woollen and worsted piece-goods, linen piece-goods and motor cars. Exports to Canada, which had been falling since July, also rose in October-to £6.4 million.
V.-Balance of Payments
*22.
The changes this year in our gold and dollar deficit are shown below.
Net Gold and Dollar Deficit (')
Weekly averages:-
1949 1st Quarter
April May June
(United States $ million)
AuXuwk
26
34
52
56
July
53
August
45
Weeks ended:-
September 3
10
17
62335
56
72
43
24
17
...
Devaluation
18th September
(1) Met by drawings on the Canadian Credit and the International Monetary Fund, by assistance under the European Recovery Programme and by drafts on our gold and dollar holdings.
23. Receipts from Americans for settlement of previous debts, and for purchases (that had been deferred and are now being made), of sterling goods, have continued at a diminished rate. It is not yet possible to say to what extent any more permanent increase in the rate of purchases has taken place, and there- fore what the future course of the deficit will be. American Account sterling decreased in November but there was no reconversion into dollars, and the sterling was probably, therefore, spent on the increased purchases mentioned above.
Changes in United Kingdom Gold and Dollar Holdings
(United States $ million)
Decrease
Increase
56
43
125
93
153
81
1949 1st Quarter
April
May
June
July
August
Weeks ended:-
September 3
10
17
MON
2005
29
56
14
24
4
Devaluation
18th September
NOTE.-The Chancellor of the Exchequer will be making an oral statement to his colleagues regarding the more recent figures of:-
(i) The net gold and dollar deficit;
(ii) The changes in the United Kingdom gold and dollar holdings; (iii) Reserves and liabilities.
General balance of payments
24. Heavy payments for imports and invisibles (partly in order to anticipate devaluation), and the tendency to defer inward payments, caused a steep increase in United Kingdom sterling liabilities to the non-sterling area in the third quarter of the year (Table 11), while liabilities to the sterling area fell by a smaller amount than has been the case recently.
VI.-Stocks
25. After rising from 93 in March to 108 in September, the index of volume of Bagk8o9fodd animal feeding-stuffs, raw maPerind8dqfet eum products (December 1947-100) is expected to decline to 103 in January 1950. This reduction reflects an expected fall in the index of food and animal feeding-stuffs
5
from 113 in Sentensher of 104 in January. No significatachage is fexpected in the level of raw material stocks and only a small decline in stocks of petroleum products during the last quarter of the year.
Index of Volume of Stocks in the United Kingdom
(December 1947 = 100)
Food and animal feeding-stuffs
Total
Raw materials
Petroleum products
1948-49
1949-50
1948-49 1949-50
1948-49 1949-50 | 1948-49 1949-50
March
September
October
January
55880
95
93
96
93
97
108
94
113
96
107
95
114
96
103(1)
98
104(1)
no225
95
88
92
159
96
100
133
173
94
99
138
162
91
98(1)
143
163(1)
(1) Forecast.
Import and Export Prices
VII.-Prices
26. The index of prices of United Kingdom exports (1947-100) was unchanged in October at 113 compared with 112 in October 1948. The October index of export prices reflects largely the prices of goods shipped under pre- devaluation contracts.
27. The index of import prices, however, rose sharply from 111 in September to 121 in October. In general the index of import prices represents the sterling equivalent at the new exchange rates of the prices paid for goods which arrived in October. It is estimated that changes in the prices charged by overseas suppliers in terms of their own currencies accounted for a rise of nearly 2 per cent. in the total index of import prices and that the remainder of the increase about 7 per cent.) was due to the rise in the sterling equivalent of prices of United Kingdom imports as the direct result of the change in exchange rates.
Retail Prices
28. The index of retail prices (June 1947-100) was unchanged at 112 in October.
29. The index of food prices rose by 2 per cent. to 119 owing mainly to the increase in the maximum permitted prices of bread and flour, on 25th September.
30. The index of clothing prices, which had risen steadily to 119 in September declined in October to 117. It is expected that the recent reductions in the maximum prices of utility clothing, footwear and household textiles should be sufficient to offset increases in the prices of other items of clothing and household durable goods during the rest of this year. There was a small rise in the fuel and light index due mainly to seasonal increases.
Interim Index of Retail Prices (17th June, 1947 100)
October
1948
June
1949
September
October
1949
1949
All items
Food
Rent and rates
108
111
112
112
108
116
117
119
100
100
100
100
Clothing
114
118
119
117
Fuel and light
112
113
113
114
Household durable goods
109
108
108
108
Miscellaneous goods
109
113
113
113
Services
105
105
106
106
Drink and tobalooge 810 of 1097
108