1st April, 1949
1st April, 1st April, 1st April,
1st April,
1950
1951
1952
1953
(for comparison
only)
Royal Navy
(145,000)
140,000 127,500
124,800
123,000
Army
...
R.A.F.
Totals
:
(416,000) 380,400 355,500 (232,000) 205,600
351,750
348,750
199,000
202,000
· 206,000
678,550
677,750
(793,000) 726,000 682,000
The National Service intakes estimated to be necessary on the basis of these man-power figures are as follows:--
Royal Navy Army
R.A.F.
Totals
1950-51
1951-52
1952-53.
2,000
1,000
Nil
;
111,550
124,690
119,700
45,000
45,000
45,000
158,550
170,690
164,700
·
The money which can be spent in any one year frequently depends on circumstances outside the control of the Service Departments. This applies particularly to the Stores Vote, where production difficulties are involved. The total allocations which are proposed above are the minimum-in some cases below the minimum-necessary to provide for our defence needs over the three-year period. It is therefore of the utmost importance that departments should be authorised to carry forward from year to year any money which they have not found it possible or desirable to spend. Only if this is allowed will the proposed annual allocations be properly and economically spent.
4. It has been necessary, in order not to exceed the annual total of £810 million, to keep expenditure on equipment well below a level which would ensure our ability to expand production quickly in an emergency. This effect would be considerably diminished, without incurring additional expenditure, if an armament export trade were to be built up in peace-time on a considerable scale.
5. The acceptance of the above allocations of money and men involves serious risks in regard to the adequacy of the Forces and in the field of research and development. Details of the proposed Forces during the next three years, of the commitments which they will be able to undertake and of the risks which will have to be accepted are given in a parallel report by the Chiefs of Staff Committee.
6. It should be noted that the recent reduction in the exchange value of sterling against the dollar will result in considerable increases in Service Department expenditure. It is, however, impossible as yet to estimate what the effect will be on the figures in paragraph 3 (a) above. Our recommendations have therefore had to be made without taking account of this development.
7. The Committee recommend :-
(i) that the provisional Defence Budget for the three years beginning
April 1950 shall be as set out in paragraph 3 (a) above.
(ii) that within the total allocations to each Department adjustments
between one year and another should be allowed.
(iii) that sketch estimates for the financial year 1950-51 should be prepared on the basis of the money allocations in paragraph 3 (a) of this report and that planning for the years 1951-52 and 1952-53 should proceed in accordance with those figures.
(iv) that the uniformed man-power figures given in paragraph 3 (b) above should be accepted, and should form the basis of the investigations of the proposed Working Party, under the Chairmanship of Sir Godfrey Ince, which is to consider the control of the National Service intake.
Pahilog of Defence, S.W. 1,
29th September, 1949: :
M. J. DEAN,
(Signed)
op behalf of the Committee...
11
393