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5. More Liberal Administration of the United States Tariff
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It is impossible to say how far any arguments we put forward on this will meet with opposition from " pressure groups in the United States, or, if we are successful, how soon our exporters will take advantage of relaxations. The Board of Trade suggest, with every reserve, that the benefit in a full year might be between 5 and 10 per cent. of our export trade, i.e., between $10 and $20 . million, say $15 million.
6. Reduction of Proportion of Synthetic Rubber to Natural Rubber
The Board of Trade have approached this as follows, all the figures being for a full year.
The minimum use of synthetic rubber required by the statute is 225,000 tons per annum. To this a departmental order added 50,000 tons. Over and above that 275,000 tons, consumers voluntarily used a further 166,000 tons, making the total 441,000 tons. It is assumed that the new statutory minimum need be only the difference between the present statutory minimum (220,000 tons) and the voluntary consumption (166,000 tons), i.e. (generously written up) 75,000 tons. Add the existing voluntary consumption and another 100,000 tons on general grounds, and the total consumption of synthetic rubber would be 341,000 tons, a saving of 100,000 tons. Of this saving, to be replaced by natural rubber— the amount of which is obviously very speculative indeed-the sterling area might hope to gain 70 per cent., worth $25 million.
7. Loans from the Export-Import Bank
No credit is taken for this item in view of the absence of any information about possible applications and about length of time which cases take to come to fruition.
Treasury, 31st August, 1949.
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