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By scaling down these rising programmes sane jobs which would
otherwise get in 1950 would not beauty449fH•
16.
The nature and scale of the problem can be seen from the Table in the Appendix to this report, which shows the trend of investment as brought out by the last review made by the Investment Programmes Committee. It will be noted that Departmental estimates suggested an increase over the level achieved in 1948 of no less than £300 millions in 1950 rising to £500 millions in 1952. The pressure of demand comes mainly from the public sector, as is shown by the following figures:
1948
1952
1952
1952
Depart-
Actual
mental Estimate
as per cent of
1948
I.P.C. Recomm- endation
SM.
ᎦᎷ .
SM
Fuel and Power
164
326
199
279
Transport & Com-
munications
287
371
129
309
Shipping
77
49
64
49
Agriculture, etc.
84
97
115
81
Iron and Steel
34
39
115
39
Manufacturing
Industry
400
530
132
450
New Housing
322
282
88
253
Other Social
Services
70
222
317
147
Administration &
Defence
58
86
148
75
TOTAL: Principal
Sectors only
1,496
2,002
134
1,682
Apart from manufacturing industry, where the estimate for 1952 is of doubtful validity, it is quite clear that major reductions in 1950 and later years can be secured only by checking the rate at which new commitments are undertaken in the socialised industries and in the social services. It is by this approach and by allowing only a modest increase in the provision for manufacturing industry that the Investment Programmes Committee in their recent report recommended cuts of £200 million for 1950 and £300 millions for 1952. The outs for 1950 have been provisionally approved with minor increases for education and certain Home Office services, thus reducing the prospective total investment for that year from £2,326 millions to £2,123 millions • Final decisions on the recommendations for '1952, which would reduce the proposed programme from £2,526 millions to £2,206 millions, have yet to be taken.
17.
The prospects of reducing the volume of investment for 1950 and later years below these levels turns on the following factors:-
(a)
The extent to which private firms and individuals
and also the public corporations would be induced spontaneously to limit their investment plans Page 4498f662 of any general deflpȧtery ofggqures
that may be adopted (paragraph 7 above).
emy of geures
estimate can be placed on this.
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