8
Page 142
APPENDIX I TO ANNEX A
WORLD PRODUCTION OF CERTAIN COMMODITIES, 1948
(In million metric tons)
Country group
(a) Soviet Bloc
Alum- Coal(1) Oil(2) Steel Copper(3) inium 386.0 35.0 24.8 0.28(5) 0.17(5)
Nitro-
Sulphuric
gen(4)
Acid
0.6
3.20
(b) Rest
of Continental Europe and dependent overseas territories
223.4 2.4
25.2
0.31
0.22
1.1
4.41
(c) United Kingdom and
dependent
overseas
territories
214.1 67.5
15.1
0.18
0.03
0.3
1.55
(d) America,
excluding
European dependent
overseas territories
611.1 442.0
82.9 1.66
0.88
1.4
10.50
(e) Rest of World (including
Commonwealth) in Asia,
Africa, Australia
103.7 0.2
4.4 0.07
0.01
0.3
2.21
NOTES
(1) Includes hard coal equivalent of brown coal.
(2) Sub-divided according to control of sources, e.g., United Kingdom and United States companies operating abroad and Soviet share of Austrian oil.
(3) Refined.
(4) Nitrogen content.
(5) U.S.S.R. figures for copper and aluminium include reclaim metal (43,000 tons in the case of the latter) which may not be included in the figures for other countries.
Coal
Future Plans
The Soviet Five-Year Plan puts output in 1950 at 250 million tons, which with the planned increases of the other countries within the Soviet Bloc gives a Bloc total for 1950 of some 475 million tons. The Long-Term Programmes for the O.E.E.C. countries and their dependent overseas territories bring the total 1952-53 production for the rest of Europe and dependent overseas territories to 285 million tons and for the United Kingdom and dependent overseas
overseas territories to 258 4 million tons.
Oil
•
The oilfields under Soviet influence are not capable of the expansion possible in those under Western control. The Soviet Five-Year Plan sets the 1950 target at 35 4 million tons and with slight expansion in the other countries of the Bloe, brings the area target to 44 millions. Expansion of French controlled oil (especially in Iraq) accounts for the rise in the other Continental countries to 6.4 million tons and in United Kingdom and Anglo-Dutch controlled production to 101 2 million by 1952-3. In this latter expansion that of the Middle East plays the most significant part as it does in the rise in United States controlled and other American production to 475 million tons, estimated for 1951.
Steel
The importance attached by the U.S.S.R. and its satellites to the restoration and expansion of steel production is illustrated by the 1950 target of 34.5 million tons, an importance also realised by O.E.E.C. countries, where by 1952-3 produc- tion by the Continental participants is to be 40.7 million tons, and in the United Kingdom 17 millions.
Non-Ferrous Metals and Chemicals
The plans for the U.S.S.R. and Soviet-controlled countries indicate that by 1950 the production of copper, nitrogen and sulphuric acid is to be about one-third higher than in 1948 and that aluminium output is to be no less than 80 per cent. higher. The O.E.E.C. Continental countries are planning slightly higher rates of increase, to be achieved by 1952-3. No figures for the United Kingdom are available, but probably increases will be at a rather lower rate than in the other O.E.E.C. countries. The 1948 figures give an unrealistic figure of non-Soviet Paige production as the Japanese potential is far higher the figures
indicate.
10
Page 143 vert 1940 roubles" into dollar143 estimate of 9.73
Page of 3.66
Baran's
In order to convert (1940) roubles=1 (1940) dollar has been taken as giving a reasonably likely approximation. If an allowance is now made for the change in United States wholesale prices between 1940 and 1948 this gives 4.67 (1940) roubles=1 (1948) doilar. In terms of dollars of 1948 purchasing power, therefore, the figures for the national incomes of the U.S.S.R., United Kingdom and United States in 1948
are:
U.S.S.R.
United Kingdom United States
...
Million dollars
63,000
39,000
223,000
ANNEX B
ECONOMIC WAR POTENTIAL OF THE U.S.S.R.
This paper examines current intelligence estimates of the U.S.S.R.'s military strength in the light of her economic resources and by comparison with the United Kingdom.
Current Soviet military strength
2. The following table compare, n very summary form and in purely quantitative terms, the current military strengths of the U.S.S.R. and the United Kingdom, the figures for the U.S.S.R. having been provided by the Joint Intelligence Committee.*
Total strength of the Armed Forces ...
of which-
Army
Air Force
Navy
Naval Air Force
Security troops
U.S.S.R.
U.K.
4,060,000
785,000
2,500,000
415,600
500,000
224,900
600,000*
144,500
60,000
400,000
3. This table of course affords no comparison of combat efficiency, but is merely intended to give a rough indication of the size of the defence burden which falls on the economies of the two countries.
Armament output
4. For the current maintenance and gradual re-equipment of these forces the output of certain selected military items is estimated as follows:-
Monthly Output
Aircraft ...
of which-
Tanks and self-propelled guns
Military types
Motor vehiclest
Co-relation of military and economic potential
U.S.S.R.
U.K.
1,000
150†
600
130†
500
16
17,600
14,400
5. It is argued that, when the industrial capacities of the two countries are compared, the defence effort of the U.S.S.R. as estimated above represents a burden beyond her capabilities, or at least disproportionate to the resources she has avail- able for the maintenance, rehabilitation and expansion of her civilian economy. It has been pointed out, for instance, that the Russians are apparently maintaining armed forces about five times as large as our own, are producing about six times
* Including 275,000 coast defence troops.
Estimated for 1949.
Load carriers only.