March-
United Kingdom Irish Republic
February-
United Kingdom Irish Republic
January-
United Kingdom
Irish Republic
E.R.P. Net Receipts
$ million
Cash
Non-cash
Total
105
27
132
...
...
1
2
3
...
76
11
87
....
4
1
5
93
2
95
3
3
...
Grand total (1st Quarter
1949).
...
...
282
43
325
NOTE.-Above figures include Commodity Credit Corporation. Procurements on basis of date of commitment and differ slightly from figures quoted previously, which were the basis of date of completion of documentation.
20. There were further drawings by India of $8 million on the International Monetary Fund, by the United Kingdom of $10 million on the Canadian Credit, and increased receipts under the South African Gold Loan Agreement. But even these resources, coupled with the increased E.R.P. receipts, failed to prevent a reversal of the upward trend in reserves which started last November. The reduction in the total United Kingdom gold and dollar holdings was £3 million during the month of March, and a further substantial reduction of £11 million took place in April.
21. Sterling liabilities in respect of the rest of the sterling area fell by £10 million in March, but this was more than offset by a rise of £11 million in respect of the non-sterling area. March was the second month in succession which had shown no significant change in the level of total sterling liabilities. India's sterling fell by £41 million, but South Africa's holdings reinforced by sterling drawings on the Gold Loan showed only a moderate drop. Gold loan drawings by 24th May amounted to £35 million out of the total of £80 million.
VI.-Stocks .
22. In judging how much our balance of payments has improved during the last 18 months it is important to know whether or not we have been replacing our stocks of imported or mainly imported commodities, that is, whether the improvement in our balance of payments has been made possible by " disinvest- ing" in stocks or whether we have been able to build them up.
23. Figures of total weight in tons of stocks of food, animal feeding-stuffs, raw materials and petroleum products are not a reliable guide for this purpose, since any change measured in tons may be the net result of increases in stocks of commodities having a relatively low price per ton and reductions in stocks of other commodities costing much more per ton.
24. Table 12 in the Appendix gives for the first time a measure of changes in the volume of stocks since the end of 1947, computed by valuing stocks of each commodity at constant f.o.b. prices. The table shows that the volume of total stocks of food and animal feeding-stuffs (excluding stocks on farms), stocks of raw materials (excluding stocks of pig-iron and steel which are mainly home produced) and stocks of petroleum products, was only very slightly lower at the end of 1948 than at the end of 1947. Small movements of this magnitude in the index during 1948 cannot be regarded as very significant owing to the changes in the relative prices of commodities during the year. The index of stocks of food and animal feeding-stuffs fell by 2 per cent., though this was not significant Stocks of raw materials declined by ipêdent., due almost entirely to a 20 per cent. Pall in stocks of textile materials. Stocks of petroleum products rose by 44 per cent.
48
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6
Paže 1Рgebimy figures for 1949 show that the apdex of the3ume of total stocks (December 1947-100) declined further to 93 at the end of March 1949 compared with 95 at March 1948. This fall in the first quarter of 1949 reflects mainly the seasonal fall in stocks of food and feeding-stuffs and raw materials. The index is forecast to rise to 96 at the end of June, when it will be two points above the level at June 1948
Index of Volume of Stocks in the United Kingdom
(December 1947 100)
End of month
Total
Food and feeding-stuffs
Raw materials
Petroleum
products
1946 December
101
95
100
169
1947 December
1948 March
June
September
December
1949 January
100
100
100
100
:
:
February
March
93
☹ * ŏ a ann
95
96
95
92
94
91
95
114
96
94
95
133
97
98
93
144
96
98
91
139
95
96
90
150
93
87
161
Forecast
April
May
35895
2223
93
92
88
167
95 96
96
89
166
96
91
162
June
26.
In interpreting these figures of changes in the value of stocks it should be remembered that they relate to total stocks held by importers, wholesalers and manufacturers; they do not include retail stocks or work in progress, both of which almost certainly rose in volume during 1948.
Import and Export Prices
VII.-Prices
27. The index of export prices (1947-100) which declined from 113 in January to 112 in February was unchanged in March. The index of import prices has been constant at 118 since January. Since March 1948 the terms of trade have deteriorated by about 4 per cent.
Retail Prices
28. The interim index of retail prices (June 1947-100) was unchanged in March at 109 compared with 106 at March 1948. The index has now been constant at 109 since last November. The index of food prices declined by one point to 108 in March compared with 109 in March 1948. "The trend of clothing prices continues to rise though less rapidly than in 1948.
Wholesale Prices
29. After remaining almost unchanged since May 1948, the Board of Trade's index of wholesale prices (1938-100) rose sharply by 2.7 per cent. in April from 217 to 223-the biggest increase since January 1948. This rise was due almost entirely to the limitation or removal of subsidies. The index of cereal prices rose by 12 per cent. owing to increases in the maximum prices of animal feeding-stuffs. The index of iron and steel prices rose by about 9 per cent. after the removal of the subsidies on imported ore, scrap and pig-iron. This was partly offset by reductions in the prices of cotton, wool,. lead and zinc and the index of industrial materials and manufactures increased by 1.8 per cent. English prices of copper, lead and zinc, which lagged behind American prices when they wDragėsing3in19486are now higher than the Americangripes of 366
7
Prices in the Snited/s?át366
Page 114 30. Moody's index of staple commodity prices (31st December, 1931-100) fell further from 355 on 12th April to 344 on 13th May. Wholesale prices of farm products have remained fairly stable since February, but non-ferrous metals prices have fallen heavily. The price of lead declined from 21.5 cents a lb. in February to 14.0 cents a lb. on 6th May; the price of zinc from 17.5 cents a lb. in February to 12.0 cents a lb. on 9th May, and the price of copper from 23.5 cents a lb. in March to 18.0 cents a, lb. on 9th May.
VIII.-Wages and Earnings
31. The latest Earnings Enquiry of the Ministry of Labour shows that the average weekly earnings (including bonus, overtime, &c.) of adult men in the industries covered by the Enquiry rose in October 1948 to 137s. 11d., or 100 per cent. greater than in October 1938. The rise in average weekly earnings of men between October 1947 and October 1948 amounted to 9s. 10d., compared with a rise of 7s. 4d. between October 1946 and October 1947, and was not much below the rate of increase each year between July 1940 and July 1943. Women also received bigger increases in weekly earnings last year.
Changes in Average Weekly Earnings in Manufacturing and Certain Other
Industries
Men
S. d.
Women S. d.
+5 0
July 1940 to July 1941 July 1941 to July 1942 July 1942 to July 1943 July 1943 to July 1944 July 1944 to July 1945 July 1945 to Jan. Jan. 1946 to Oct.
+ 3
3
1946
1946
+ 6
Oct. 1946 to Oct. 1947
Oct. 1947 to Oct. 1948
+7
4
+ 9 10
+10 +12 + 9 10
3001030+ o
+10
+2
++++¦ ¦+++
8 0
OMO-1454C
5002135++
4 11
3
32. Between April 1947 and October 1948 average weekly earnings of all workers covered by the enquiry rose by 13 per cent. About one-half of this increase was due to a rise in rates of wages for a normal working week. Average hours of work (including overtime) increased by less than 1 per cent. during this period.
33. The Ministry of Labour's index of weekly wage rates (June 1947 was unchanged in April at 108 for the fourth successive month.
=
100)
34. Increases in wage rates which became effective in March and April added approximately £220,600 to the weekly wage bill of about 1,281,000 workers. The main increases were in agriculture and amounted to an addition of about £127,000 to the weekly wages of 757,000 workers.
35. A feature of some recent claims is the demand for extra holidays with pay. The claims for an extra week's holiday with pay in the coal mining and electric cable-making industries have been rejected. Paid holidays have been extended from one to two weeks in the flour milling trade and in the clothing and allied trades. The unions in the engineering and shipbuilding industries have lodged claims for an additional week's holiday with pay and similar claims have been made in the cement industry and in the retail drapery, outfitting and foot- wear trades.
36. The National Union of Railwaymen has now submitted new claims for 10s. Od. per week increase and payment of time and a quarter for Saturday afternoon rate. The previous claim for 12s. 6d. a week increase was rejected on arbitration.
Elections
IX.---European Recovery Programme
37. The annual elections for the Council and Executive Committee of the Organisationdeok plasf 3663th April. The Council (of wawell Parfching Countries are members) re-elected Belgium to the Chairmanship. The Irish
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